espite a year of missteps and embarrassing controversies, Governor Paul Cellucci would run even or better against most of his potential Democratic opponents if he were seeking reelection today, according to a Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll.
The survey of 400 likely voters indicates that, of the Democrats, only former representative Joseph P. Kennedy II would resoundingly defeat the GOP governor. Kennedy, who dropped out of the 1998 governor's race because of family issues, has brushed aside speculation he may run again.
The poll also suggests that, despite her repeated apologies and an effort to reshape her image by leading education reform in the state, Lieutenant Governor Jane Swift's public opinion ratings are worse than ever. The survey sends a mixed message to the governor and his lieutenant, said pollster Gerry Chervinsky of KRC Communications Research.
Also, the poll indicates Senator Edward M. Kennedy poised to defeat his opponents overwhelmingly and Vice President Al Gore headed to an easy victory in Massachusetts over Governor George W. Bush of Texas.
The survey was conducted Oct. 24-26 and has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
The numbers are troubling for Swift: Only 20 percent of those surveyed hold a favorable view of the state's number two official, while 46 percent view her unfavorably. They indicate her nearly yearlong struggle with charges of using her staff for personal chores and of deploying a State Police helicopter for a ride to her North Adams home has seriously damaged her political career.
While 33 percent of voters say Swift is ready to serve capably as governor, 44 percent said she is not, ready, signalling potential trouble.
Many insiders, including close Cellucci allies, believe Cellucci will join a George Bush administration if the Texas governor wins the presidential election, leaving the Corner Office to Swift.
Meanwhile, Senator Kennedy, who is running for his seventh full term, may be on the verge of winning his biggest reelection victory ever. The poll shows Kennedy will easily trounce his main opponents, Republican Jack E. Robinson and Libertarian Carla Howell. Kennedy received support from 68 percent of those polled, Robinson. 16 percent, and Howell, 8 percent.
Despite his popularity, voters indicated some restlessness about Kennedy after his 38 years in office. Some 40 percent of those polled think if Kennedy wins another six-year term, he should make it his last, compared with 39 percent who think he should run again and 14 percent who said their opinion depends on who might run.
Meanwhile, Vice President Al Gore holds a commanding lead in Massachusetts over Bush, 54 percent to 28 percent. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader has 7 percent and Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan 3 percent.
While Cellucci's image has improved somewhat since a KRC poll in February, his standing with the public is still tenuous, the new survey indicates.
Although he holds his own or has a significant lead among several potential Democratic rivals, Cellucci's favorable rating is 40 percent and his unfavorable rating is 41 percent, a precarious position for a sitting governor.
Yet there are some slightly encouraging results. Cellucci's overall approval rating is 32 percent, up slightly from 28 percent last February, and his ''below average'' rating has dropped from 35 percent to 28 percent.
While Cellucci's numbers are not particularly good, he continues to show political strength because the Democratic field, with the exception of Joseph Kennedy, is mostly still unknown, Chervinsky said. For example, only 35 percent feel Cellucci deserves to be reelected, while 42 percent say they would prefer someone else, and another 14 percent said their opinion depends on who's running, or it's too early to decide.
''On his own, his numbers are not impressive. But in relation to an unknown Democratic field, he is still viable,'' Chervinsky said.
Kennedy, who left politics two years ago, ran far ahead of the governor, 51 percent to 28, with 18 percent undecided, the survey showed.
After Kennedy, the strongest potential Democratic gubernatorial candidates were state Treasurer Shannon P. O'Brien and US Representative Martin T. Meehan, the Lowell Democrat.
The survey showed O'Brien edging the governor 38 percent to 36 percent, with 23 percent undecided, a statistical deadheat because the difference is within the margin of error. Meehan ran even with Cellucci, with both drawing 36 percent.
Cellucci ran ahead of state Senate President Thomas F. Birmingham, 39 percent to 30 percent, with 28 percent undecided. Former national Democratic Party chairman Steve Grossman would lose to Cellucci, 29 percent to 37 percent, with 33 percent undecided. And former state Senator Warren Tolman would lose, 26 percent to Cellucci's 38 percent, with 32 percent undecided.
Cellucci, who during his first months in office received strong ratings from the public, has been hurt over the past year by a series of scandals and controversies. His Massport director, Peter Blute, was forced to resign in August 1999 when he was photographed on a taxpayer-funded ''booze cruise'' in Boston Harbor. When the cost of the Big Dig began to soar last February, Cellucci eventually fired the project's chief, James Kerasiotes, amid charges of a coverup of the increased costs.
But perhaps the most serious political drag came from the charges against Swift that lingered until August when the State Ethics Commission fined her $1,250 for using State House aides to babysit her daughter. Last spring, she resigned under pressure from a part-time Suffolk University teaching post that paid three times the average salary but required little work.
