ASHINGTON - When the Christian Coalition opens its ''Road to Victory'' convention with presidential candidates today, the organization will again put forward its message that a Republican cannot win the White House without focusing on conservative issues such as opposition to abortion.
But the campaign so far is hardly what the coalition had intended. Some candidates who adhere closely to the coalition line have dropped out of the race, while several of the remaining top candidates have assiduously played down abortion.
The coalition is striving to emerge from a near-death experience over the past year. The organization is in debt, claims only 15 to 20 active state operations, and saw a number of top officials leave the group. The coalition is run by its founder, Pat Robertson, who recently donated $1 million to keep it afloat financially.
''They are in deep trouble,'' said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia professor who has watched the coalition for years. ''They have gone from being at the peak of Mount Everest to being at about the level of the Dead Sea.''
Still, the religious conservatives who make up the bulk of the coalition say they have the political power to have an impact on the GOP race, especially in early states such as Iowa, South Carolina, Virginia, and Michigan. Seven of the eight Republican candidates are coming to court votes. Senator John McCain of Arizona declined the invitation to attend.
Even if the coalition returns to financial and political health in the coming months, its members appear deeply divided over the candidates. Unless the coalition rallies around one candidate, its influence might be too diffused during the primaries, although the organization is likely to be a factor in the general election.
''The challenge for the social conservative movement is to become a little bit more politically astute and rally behind one candidate,'' coalition spokesman Mike Russell said.
Despite what appears to be a groundswell for George W. Bush among Republicans, the Texas governor is still viewed suspiciously by many social conservatives, as was his father in the 1988 and 1992 campaigns. While the younger Bush opposes abortion, he rarely brings up the subject in speeches and has made clear it isn't a top priority.
Bush has focused recently on courting social conservatives, suggesting that faith-based groups be allowed to run government social programs. In addition, Bush has suggested that failing schools could lose federal funds, which then could be used at private institutions in states that allow such a transfer. And Bush has met privately with Robertson and hired the former Christian Coalition executive director, Ralph Reed, as a top adviser.
''I think Governor Bush has got a real strong affinity with the conservative grass roots of the party,'' Reed said in an interview. ''He is a person who has a profound faith testimony himself. He talks about how his faith in God changed his life, and that is a message that resonates very powerfully with this constituency.''
Some Republican candidates most closely associated with the coalition have stumbled. On Monday, for example, former Vice President Dan Quayle, who was counting on strong support from coalition members, dropped out of the race due to a lack of funds. Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire has dropped out of the GOP field to launch an independent bid. And another coalition favorite, Patrick J. Buchanan, is on the verge of leaving the Republican Party to seek the nomination of the Reform Party, whose economic-centered platform excludes any mention of abortion or other social issues.
All the Republican candidates oppose abortion. But a number of the leading prospects have played down the significance of the issue. Former American Red Cross president Elizabeth Dole has said she doesn't want to be drawn into the ''dead-end debate'' on abortion.
McCain is unpopular with the coalition because his original campaign finance bill would have required the disclosure of donors who contribute to ads that run in the late stages of a campaign. Although that provision has been stripped from McCain's bill, many coalition members believe the senator intends to restrict their voice in politics.
That has left four other Republican candidates who strongly oppose abortion to fight for coalition support: former Reagan aide Gary Bauer, publisher Steve Forbes, Senator Orrin G. Hatch of Utah, and talk show host Alan Keyes.
The biggest fight is between Bauer and Forbes, who have become bitter enemies this year in their effort to become the favorite of social conservatives. On Wednesday, Bauer held an extraordinary news conference to deny rumors he was having an affair with a campaign aide and implied the stories were being spread by Forbes's campaign. Forbes denied that his staff had anything to do with the rumors.
Forbes has gone to great lengths to portray himself as a champion of the coalition's causes - a turnabout from his 1996 campaign. Forbes once called Robertson a ''toothy flake'' and said in 1996 that he would work mostly to stop late-term abortions. But after losing that campaign, Forbes has switched strategies, calling himself ''pro-life'' and hiring many former Christian Coalition officials.
