XETER, N.H. - His poll numbers are unspectacular, he is overshadowed by his more popular rivals, and his aides complain of an unfair ''national media blackout.''
But as he surveyed the lobster tank at the Fresh Fish Daley market yesterday, Steve Forbes displayed no signs of discouragement.
''We're going to do to the Washington politicians what you do to those lobsters,'' Forbes said.
In fact, Forbes's campaign has remained defiantly optimistic in the final days before today's presidential primary, despite the fact that the GOP race has been almost entirely defined by the competition between the two front-runners, Governor George W. Bush of Texas and Senator John McCain.
The self-described ''true conservative'' in the Republican race kept up his criticism of Bush and McCain as timid moderates whose tax-cut proposals are too small and whose opposition to abortion is weak.
Yesterday, Forbes said his campaign, which has cost him more than $28 million in the past year, is gaining momentum, and he expects to ''surprise a lot of people.''
But Forbes's campaign manager, Bill Dal Col, backed away from earlier talk that Forbes could finish ahead of Bush and leave the Texan in a humiliating third place.
Still, Dal Col insisted Forbes would exceed expectations, saying that internal campaign polls show Forbes doing much better than national surveys suggest.
Even more important than Forbes's showing, Dal Col said, was what happens to Bush. Dal Col said if McCain were to defeat Bush, the Texan's conservative supporters would flock to Forbes. That, he said, would set up Forbes for strong showings later this month in Delaware and South Carolina.
''If McCain beats him decently in New Hampshire, the vote in South Carolina starts to splinter,'' Dal Col said. ''The conservatives will not go to John McCain. The place to come home is us.''
Between get-out-the-vote calls from his Manchester phone bank headquarters yesterday, Forbes said he would not drop out of the race regardless of his showing here. ''We're in it for the duration,'' he said.
As other candidates trekked through snow from one event to another yesterday, Forbes substituted retail politicking for a frenzy of media appearances. Aides estimated that in the final 72 hours, Forbes would sit for more than 30 radio and television interviews.
Forbes aides see local media outlets, particularly conservative talk radio programs, as an effective way to spread his message.
Forbes has become a master at conducting an interview on his own terms. He shrugs off the best efforts of one host after another to flummox him, repeating his mantra that he is ''the most pro-life, anti-tax candidate in the race.''
Dal Col said Forbes has conducted at least as much retail campaigning over the past year as any other candidate. But, he added, ''when you've got a national media blackout ... there's no sense in putting together a town hall event when the likelihood of making the national news is very slim.''
Although Forbes aides often gripe about the media, one newspaper has kept them buoyed. Since the Manchester Union Leader endorsed Forbes several weeks ago, the paper, with a circulation of 63,000, has been running regular editorials supportive of him.
