WASHINGTON -- WITH HINDSIGHT, there were a couple of revealing and symbolic hints of the earthquake that was coming from the Florida supreme court yesterday.
The physical transfer Thursday evening of more than 13,000 ballots possibly containing legal votes from the trial court of Judge N. Sanders Saul to the Supreme Court was one. This was the physical evidence for Al Gore's case that the judge had failed to examine. Big mistake.
The other was the ''Oops I Forgot'' memorandum that George W. Bush's top attorney, Barry Richard, filed with the court yesterday morning, contradicting his limited agreement during the formal argument that it had jurisdiction to hear Gore's appeal. This was the tacit admission of a nervous, exhausted lawyer that his case was shaky.
The conventional wisdom here was that Gore had no chance. It was wrong, as it was shortly before the election itself. Gore deserves to remain in the game, and his efforts deserve a fair chance and a fair hearing, above all because Gore (unlike Bush) is willing to accept what he officially hears.
But make no mistake, the 4-3 decision, reflecting the country's and the state's divisions, only sets the stage for even bigger confrontations - one with the thus far indecisive US Supreme Court; one with the partisanly decisive Florida Legislature; and one with the calendar as the race to count nearly statewide begins.
The size of those confrontations should not be underestimated. The three dissents already signal awareness of the seriousness of the federal issues raised in this mess; the prospect that Bush could be in effect selected president by the ultimate Supremes is real.
In addition, the state court decision makes it very nearly certain that the Legislature will attempt to select a slate of 25 Bush electors in nefarious concert with the Bush campaign and Governor Jeb Bush.
It could end up competing for recognition in January with a state-certified Gore slate if he comes out ahead in the recounts.
Finally, there should be no naive assumptions that those recounts are certain to occur. The Bush campaign has been relentless and largely successful in its efforts to postpone, stop or disrupt them. And the last time the state Supreme Court ordered hand recounts of punch-card ballots in three counties, it probably erred by not giving them enough time or cover to actually complete them (Broward County excepted until yesterday's decision included 215 post-deadline, net Gore votes from Palm Beach).
The horrid experience of Miami-Dade stands as a sobering reminder of what can still go wrong.
When yesterday began, you had two campaigns in diametrically opposed postures. Gore was entirely dependent on a favorable Supreme Court decision, and could not have maintained a credible presence without it. In fact, he would not have tried to. But Bush demands different and special treatment. He, unlike Gore had the veep lost, is ready to appeal to the US Supreme Court. He is also prepared to go to the Legislature and then to the Republican-led House of Representatives, no matter what either Supreme Court rules.
In other words, even if he ends up on the short end of the final, statewide count of what the voters decided, he is prepared to become president on the strength of 100 legislators and five US Supreme Court justices.
Three of yesterday's developments merit special mention.
Gore was wrong not to admit it, but his political position demanded defeat in the two absentee ballot application cases brought by his supporters in Seminole and Martin counties. These were lousy cases on the facts and the law, and their purpose (getting actual votes tossed) ran counter to the vice president's position favoring inclusions via counting. Gore should feel lucky his supporters lost, and he should lean on them not to appeal.
The other development involved the smart decision by the state court majority to provide for a statewide hand count of ''undercounts'' (no presidential vote recorded by machine) in the 64 counties (excepting Broward and Palm Beach on the Gold Coast and Volusia on the Northeast coast) that haven't done them.
And it also said that the Legislature's standard that requires clear evidence of voter intent should apply, effectively endorsing the tough rules used in Palm Beach.
Going statewide with a standard borrowed from state law will help in any judicial review here, though it, of course, guarantees nothing. It also takes away the Bush claim previously that only ''selected'' counties were involved under no uniform rule.
The numerical impact of yesterday's decision was to reduce Bush's certified 537-vote lead to 154. There is no certainty, but a statewide recount by hand, with the bulk of the impact coming in punch card counties that mostly favored Gore, is more than likely to produce a final total with the vice president in the lead.
The only way Bush can avoid that is via a power play worthy of the late, unlamented Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876.
Thomas Oliphant's e-mail address is oliphant@globe.com.
