ASHINGTON - Coming off a couple of bumpy weeks on the campaign trail and facing a continuing downdraft in opinion polls, George W. Bush turns today to an unlikely source for political revival.
His aides will be in Washington to talk about the debates that the Republican presidential contender had tried so hard to shape to his own sense of the most advantageous timing, setting, and format.
At first blush, it may seem to be the ultimate indignity, being forced to negotiate with Vice President Al Gore over an issue Bush had said was non-negotiable.
But the imminent prospect of debates - and even a breakthrough on their scheduling - could be just the shift of focus Bush needs. For despite his recent run of bad luck, attention may turn to what may prove a silver lining for Bush: Even as coverage has focused more on his miscues than his message, the Texas governor has remained close to Gore, the Democratic presidential nominee, in most public opinion surveys. Projections of the electoral vote count also have not changed much since the party conventions, although there has been a tightening in Florida, a state Bush is counting on.
In addition, the debates that Gore has so confidently sought pose a risk to Bush and also come at a peril to Gore. The protracted negotiations over debate logistics have served, if anything, to lower the already low expectations about Bush's performance. The vice president, by contrast, has been cast as a champion debater, leaving him little reward for performing up to par but plenty of downside should he falter.
In the past, Gore has excelled by attacking debate opponents like Ross Perot and Bill Bradley. But his strengths in debate - aggression, reliance on wily debating technique, and encyclopedic command of policy arcana - may not wear well in a presidential debate or may serve to remind voters of a side to Gore that, until recent months, led many to question his likability and character.
''The big news from the last month hasn't been what Bush has lost as much as it has been what Gore has gained,'' said Kellyanne Fitzpatrick, a Republican and head of The Polling Co. ''Gore has finally become an opponent worthy of George W. Bush's poll position. It's finally a contest. I was always wondering why in the world a sitting vice president had been hovering around 39-40 percent for month after month.''
Speaking Tuesday on Capitol Hill to his fellow Democrats, Gore adviser Bob Shrum said the vice president still has plenty of work to do. He particularly needs to solidify his Democratic base despite the strides he has made with independent voters.
The Gore message in the coming weeks, according to someone who attended the briefing, will be to portray the vice president not so much as a supporter of government, but as one working to meet people's needs through government programs. The campaign is most fearful when Bush tries to label Gore a supporter of big government, Shrum said.
If his campaign is trying to come off a slump, it would be impossible to tell from watching Bush, who spent two hours telling jokes on his campaign plane earlier this week. The campaign spin is the same: Aides insist they are doing just fine, and that the last two weeks are a natural part of the election pendulum.
With 54 days left in the campaign, there is still ample time for Gore to hit a rough patch. And with the vice president now apparently a narrow frontrunner, Bush is, by default, the underdog - a role he played in his 1994 Texas gubernatorial campaign to great success.
''We laugh about it,'' said Karen Hughes, Bush communications director, ''because the truth is, the hidden truth is, that we're exactly where we expected to be.''
Even if that may be a stretch - certainly, the Bush campaign hoped to keep some of the lead they enjoyed following the Republican convention - the campaign does not seem as rattled as it did last February, after Bush unexpectedly lost the New Hampshire primary to Arizona Senator John S. McCain and it appeared he might lose the entire race.
After the first batch of disappointing poll numbers was released last week, Bush shifted his tactics slightly, introducing a new slogan - ''Real Plans for Real People'' - and focusing more on policy. Yesterday, he took a step to bolster his campaign team, hiring veteran Washington operative Ed Gillespie to help the Bush team deliver their campaign message.
At the same time, two new polls quantified the challenge: a Reuters/Zogby survey had Gore leading Bush 46 percent to 39 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from last week and just outside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll showed Gore leading by 8 points - 49 percent to 41 percent - a reversal from Bush's 17-point lead a month ago.
Despite a growing chorus of complaints from Republican officials on Capitol Hill, some Republican strategists are confident that Bush will stay close to Gore until Nov. 7, when one candidate will win by a tiny margin. ''I'm very optimistic about Bush's chances to win,'' said Scott Reed, a GOP strategist who ran former senator Bob Dole's campaign in 1996. ''All these polls show the race so close - and they show a strong 45 percent do not want Al Gore.''
What is needed, Reed said, is greater discipline by the campaign, especially in the aftermath of the controversy over Bush using a vulgarity to describe a reporter on an open microphone or, more recently, the Republican National Committee which flashed the word ''RATS'' into a commercial attacking Gore and health maintenance organization bureaucrats.
''His team needs to stop making these silly mistakes. But I'm more optimistic than ever,'' Reed said.
Hughes agreed, pointing out the long stretches over the summer when Gore took a hammering, instead of Bush. ''There are cycles in the news,'' Hughes said. ''Vice President Gore and Senator Lieberman have been in a bit of an up cycle, but that means they're next in the down cycle.''
Hughes said the mere fact that Bush visited Washington State, long seen as a state likely to go Democratic, yesterday was proof of his optimism overall. Speaking at a salmon slough in Monroe, Wash., Bush even displayed confidence that he could address Gore on his pet issue: the environment. In his fifth visit to Washington State since the primaries, Bush criticized the Clinton administration for not protecting the environment sufficiently, despite promising to do so for two terms.
Hughes said the trip itself was evidence Bush is still very much in the race. ''We're competitive and within striking distance in a number of states that should not be competitive states - Washington, Oregon, California,'' she said.
Glen Johnson reported from Washington; Anne E. Kornblut reported from Everett, Wash.
