Democrats fear labor's wrath at polls

By Nick Anderson and Richard Simon, Los Angeles Times, 5/26/2000

ASHINGTON - Democratic congressional leaders, yearning to recapture the House later this year, scrambled yesterday to repair their political relations with prominent labor leaders still smarting from this week's bipartisan approval of a controversial China trade bill.

The labor leaders warned that Wednesday's House vote to grant China permanent trade relations with the United States could significantly undercut the enthusiasm with which union activists work for some Democrats this fall, while causing some rank-and-file members to simply stay home on Election Day.

The anxiety among Democratic leaders over organized labor's angry reaction to the China vote is heightened by the closeness of the House campaign. Independent analysts agree that Democrats have a good shot at picking up the six seats they need to take control of the 435-member chamber for the first time since 1994.

But the House vote on the China trade deal may have made that goal more difficult to reach. That is because more than one-third of the 211 House Democrats - 73 in all - sided with President Clinton and voted for the measure, despite a strong lobbying campaign against it by organized labor.

Fueling labor's sense of betrayal: 17 of the Democrats who voted for the China trade bill had sided with labor in 1993 to oppose the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Representative Patrick J. Kennedy of Rhode Island who heads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and who opposes the trade bill, acknowledged the need for damage control with a group that has been one of the party's key constituencies.

''This is obviously an important issue for labor,'' Kennedy said. ''It's going to sting for a while.''

He added that he hoped labor leaders would ''see the bigger picture in November,'' and that they would not make the China vote ''a case for separation, let alone divorce.''

But in a news conference yesterday at AFL-CIO headquarters in Washington, labor leaders showed no desire to kiss and make up.

''A very real concern is that this debate will depress [voter] turnout among working people [in November] - especially in districts where representatives voted to ... grant China permanent normal trade relations,'' said John J. Sweeney, president of the labor group.

He added: ''It's going to be hard for working men and women not to look at this vote and become more cynical about whether people and principles can pay off in politics - or whether big money is all powerful.''

Analysts pointed to Representative Dennis Moore of Kansas as an example of a Democrat who could be hurt by voting for the China deal. Moore, who is a freshman, scored a narrow victory in a closely divided district in 1998 largely on the strength of strong labor support. Now, he may have to work harder to generate such backing.

The China trade measure now goes to the Senate, where it has been assumed that it will easily pass. But signs surfaced yesterday that the bill may encounter at least a few snags in the GOP-controlled chamber.

Senator Jesse Helms, a North Carolina Republican and chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, vowed yesterday to push for ''a robust debate'' on the bill.

Also, senators from both parties could seek to change it in ways that would require another House vote.

Assuming the bill eventually becomes law, many political analysts remained skeptical that by the time November arrives, labor's anger over the China vote will still be intense enough to harm many Democrats. They note that on other issues of prime importance to unions - such as minimum wage, Social Security, and health care - a Democratic-controlled House is clearly in labor's best interests.

Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington-based analyst who specializes in congressional elections, predicted that the vote on the China trade bill ultimately will mean ''nothing, absolutely nothing,'' to the overall dynamic of the House campaign.

But Richard Trumka, the AFL-CIO's secretary-treasurer, said the House vote ''made a difficult job'' - recapturing the House - ''more difficult.''

Among Republican strategists, attention focused on Democrats who voted against the bill.

Republican Representative Thomas M. Davis of Virginia who heads the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that in swing districts the GOP would target those Democrats as out of step with the ''new economy'' of high-technology and global trade.