Democrats' gain from gun-control issue uncertain

By Michael Kranish, Globe Staff, June 23, 1999

WASHINGTON -- Almost immediately after the House killed a gun-control bill last week, Democrats proclaimed the vote would help them retake the House in 2000. Some even chanted "Six Seats!" on the House floor, referring to the net gain needed for Democratic control.

But after a few days' reflection, Representative Patrick Kennedy, who led the "Six Seats" cry and is chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, cannot name a single Republican who could be defeated because of his or her vote on gun control.

"Individually, no," Kennedy said in an interview. "If they vote the interest of their district, they won't" lose because of gun control. Instead, Kennedy believes Republicans could be defeated because of a pattern of "extreme" votes.

If last week's House votes demonstrated anything, however, it was the volatility of the gun-control debate and the riskiness in trying to predict how events will turn out.

While it's still an open question of whether the gun issue will help Democrats regain the House, the National Rifle Association similarly might be overestimating its influence on many congressional races.

And by next year, the gun debate could have its biggest impact on the presidential election and on an issue that so far hasn't even come before Congress: gun registration.

All the Republican candidates are expected to oppose gun registration. On the Democratic side, former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey has called for registering handguns, while Vice President Al Gore's spokesman couldn't say if Gore has addressed the matter. President Clinton favors registration, but hasn't introduced legislation because it has little chance of passage.

As a result, the NRA strategy is to warn its members that the Clinton administration and Democrats want to go much further than last week's House proposals for background checks at gun shows. NRA Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre, according to the organization's Web site, said Clinton wants to register every firearm and "put the name and address of every firearm owner into government computers."

NRA officials are publicizing the threat of gun registration in hopes of bringing in new members and millions of dollars of contributions, which would pay for the organization's political effort in the 2000 races.

But no one can confidently predict elections that are more than a year away. Just a month ago, many analysts said the school shooting in Littleton, Colo., had created the political climate for gun-control legislation. Then came Friday's House vote against a bill that had been weakened from a Senate measure.

"I have a list on my desk of journalists who over the last month have written the obituary of the National Rifle Association," said NRA spokesman Bill Powers. "One of the enjoyable aspects of my job this week is to call all of those reporters back and offer them a story that the NRA is alive and well."

Still, it may be a stretch for the NRA to say it can significantly influence congressional elections. Most House members voted in line with their constituencies last week to help ensure that the issue doesn't hurt their reelection.

Of the 31 Democrats who accepted NRA contributions, 30 voted with the organization by opposing an amendment offered by Representative Carolyn McCarthy, the New York Democrat, that would require three days for background checks of all purchasers at gun shows.

The only exception was Representative Bart Stupak of Michigan, an NRA member and former state trooper. A Stupak spokesman said the congressman voted for the three-day period to allow equal time for background checks for purchases at gun shows and guns stores.

Moreover, most of the Democrats who voted against the main gun-control measures come from conservative districts where hunting is popular. As for Democrats who voted for stricter controls, many come from urban areas or states where gun control is popular, making them less vulnerable to NRA attacks.

On the other side, Handgun Control Inc. officials plan to publicize the votes of those who oppose gun-control measures. "I don't think anybody who voted with us fears this will haunt them in 2000," Handgun Control spokeswoman Nancy Hwa said.

Hwa called the NRA's campaign against gun registration a public relations ploy. While acknowledging that gun registration is a top goal for Handgun Control, she said "registration is a long way off."

There is still a chance that a House-Senate conference committee could back the Senate version of the juvenile justice bill that includes several gun-control provisions. But that is unlikely, given that the committee will be controlled by Republicans who mostly oppose such legislation.

So what's next for gun control? That answer probably will be determined in the presidential campaign.

The two Democratic candidates, Gore and Bradley, have both spoken in favor of certain gun-control measures. Bradley has taken the strongest position of any presidential candidate on gun control, proposing a "registration system for handguns," according to a June 17 press release.

Republican Elizabeth Dole has gained publicity for supporting some gun-control measures, such as child safety locks. But Dole has not said whether she would back the three-day background checks. Spokesman Ari Fleischer said Dole has not addressed gun registration, but such an idea "was going too far for Elizabeth Dole."

Texas Governor George W. Bush, meanwhile, has usually sided with the NRA, although he is not a member. Bush has backed legislation allowing Texans to carry concealed weapons. And on Friday he signed a bill into law that prevents cities and other local governments in Texas from suing gun manufacturers for the public costs from gun-related crimes.

Bush's positions are unlikely to hurt him in the primaries, but could become an issue in the general election.