Doldrums dog campaign

Few on Main Street pay attention to race as conventions near

By Michael Kranish, Globe Staff, 7/23/2000

GETTYSBURG, Pa. - At the Lincoln Diner, where a portrait of the 16th president hangs by the road and patrons can practically touch the passing freight trains, it has been scores of days since anybody paid much attention to this year's presidential campaign.

''I haven't heard anybody talking about it,'' said the diner's owner, Bob Arahovas.

The same story is told across the nation, from the salons of Washington to the hinterlands.

''It's scary and it's astounding and it's frightening,'' said Representative Patrick Kennedy of Rhode Island, who is heading the Democratic effort to retake the US House and who spoke about the national lack of interest during a recent visit to Indiana. ''People just don't pay attention.''

Even at a recent Washington dinner party, with columnists, lawyers, and political junkies in attendance, the hosts could not steer the conversation to the presidential campaign until dessert was served. ''Toward the end of the dinner, we found we weren't talking about the campaign,'' said one of the guests, Marvin Kalb. ''It struck me as odd. Everybody is waiting for something to happen.''

But finally, after nearly six months of what seems a national political slumber, something is about to happen: George W. Bush and Al Gore are about to choose the vice presidential nominees. The national conventions are coming up.

The only question is whether America will pay much attention, even now. And the candidates and campaigns, struggling to get their message heard, have honed in on a very basic goal: getting voters to listen, read, and watch what they are doing.

So far, attention is clearly lacking. A survey conducted by Harvard University's aptly named ''Vanishing Voter'' project, found this month that only 12 percent of Americans are paying close attention to the race. Kalb, a former journalist who is executive director of the project, said the lack of interest is predictable. With little real news in the campaign since Bush and Gore locked up the nominations in early March, there has been only moderate media coverage and little drama to interest voters.

But Bush is expected to announce his vice presidential choice as early as tomorrow, a step bound to draw attention. And even if modern conventions don't decide much of anything with the nominee a foregone conclusion and the platform of secondary concern, they remain an occasion for voters to begin checking in.

If the voters interviewed at the Lincoln Diner are representative, and those who stop here include people from all over the country visiting the battle site, Americans are looking for something, almost anything, to help tune in and decide whom to support.

At one booth in the Lincoln Diner, Bill and Karen Glass, tourists from Boca Raton, Fla., said they were undecided and would be closely watching the vice presidential selections. ''I think both Bush and Gore are extreme, and I want to see who picks a moderate,'' Bill Glass said. ''I'd vote for Bush if he picks Elizabeth Dole,'' said his wife.

The Glass family, and tens of millions of other undecided voters, are at the heart of this new phase of the campaign. Both the Republican and Democratic parties realize America tuned out shortly after the early and decisive round of primaries, and many of these voters are now up for grabs. In perhaps the most significant political shift since February, Gore in recent days has begun to erase Bush's lead in the polls, and some analysts said the race may wind up one of the tightest in history.

''We do get the sense that more people are starting to pay attention as we draw closer to the conventions,'' Gore spokesman Doug Hattaway said. ''That may explain some of the recent tightening of the polls.''

Now the two major parties are preparing to inundate the nation's households with campaign information, spending tens of millions of dollars in an effort to awaken Americans from their political slumber.

Voter apathy is attributable to three factors, according to Kalb: diminished faith and confidence in government, the end of the Cold War, and continuing prosperity.

In addition, the compressed primary schedule created a bubble of interest early this year, spurred mostly by the insurgent candidacy of Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican. But the bubble burst when the nominations were quickly settled, leaving a huge gap until Election Day in November. That's a span of time equivalent to an entire baseball season, including spring training and the World Series.

Having no alternative, the presidential campaigns of Bush and Gore, as well as the less-publicized efforts of Reform Party candidate Patrick J. Buchanan and Green Party nominee Ralph Nader, are treating public apathy as an opportunity. Bush and Gore have launched major advertising efforts and are organizing nationwide tours aimed at drumming up attention.

Bush plans to take a bus tour starting Friday through Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia before arriving Aug. 2 at the GOP convention in Philadelphia. After the convention, Bush plans another publicity extravaganza with a whistle-stop train tour of the Midwest.

Gore, meanwhile, embarked last week on a string of televised hourlong town meetings across the country. Gore hopes to heighten interest by taking boat trips on the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River after the Democratic convention Aug. 14-17 in Los Angeles.

A close race could make all the difference. ''This is an electorate that has the potential to catch fire,'' said Andrew Kohut, executive director of the Pew Research Center for People and the Press, which tracks voter views.

But if voters perceive that the race is all but decided before Election Day and believe their vote means little, turnout could hit an all-time low.

Though voter interest will pick up during the conventions and vice presidential selection, the bad news for the campaigns is that it will probably ebb in September during the Olympics.

The biggest spike in interest is likely to come during the three presidential debates, which are scheduled for Boston on Oct. 5, North Carolina on Oct. 11, and in Missouri on Oct. 17.

The greatest interest will probably come in the first debate, which will be the first chance that most Americans have for a side-by-side comparison of the candidates.

''I haven't had time to pay attention,'' said Diane DiDomenico, a New Jersey visitor to the Lincoln Diner. She plans to start paying attention soon, but adds: ''I'll make up my mind at the last minute.''