ASHINGTON - As Al Gore scrutinizes at least six US senators as possible running mates, the Democratic Party is facing a quandary because picking a senator could undermine efforts to regain control of the Senate.
All six of the most frequently mentioned Senate prospects, including Senator John F. Kerry, hold seats that probably would be filled by a Republican, either through appointment or a later special election. And that could harm Democrats' hopes of gaining seats. If Gore picks Kerry and they win, for example, Massachusetts Governor Paul Cellucci could replace the senator with a Republican.
''There would have to be an incredibly compelling reason to pick one particular senator to punt away a Senate seat,'' said Charles Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report and an expert on Senate races. ''Gore has been around Washington long enough to understand the consequences of picking a senator and turning a seat over. I don't think any of these people are so compelling that it warrants that loss.''
This is no theoretical dilemma. Similar concerns were raised when Bill Clinton selected then-Senator Gore in 1992. A Democrat was appointed to succeed Gore temporarily after Gore became vice president. But in the special election two years later, a Republican, Fred Thompson, won the seat and still holds the job.
Republicans control the Senate by a 55-45 margin. Democrats hope to pick up at least three seats this fall, with some in the party even hoping to regain control.
Ideally, some Gore associates said, Gore would pick a governor, offsetting Republican nominee-in-waiting George W. Bush's argument that Gore is too much of a Washington insider. But only 18 out of 50 governors are Democrats, providing a relatively shallow pool of talent. Most of the governors are little-known nationally and not considered serious prospects. The most popular choice within the Gore campaign is Governor Gray Davis of California, but he was just elected in 1998 and has said he does not want the vice presidency.
As a result, the Gore campaign is considering some unorthodox candidates, including former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. But many possible running mates are in the Senate.
Three top Senate prospects come from states with Republican governors who could appoint a replacement for at least two years. They are Kerry, Senator Bob Graham of Florida, and Senator Richard Durbin of Illinois.
Two other Senate prospects, Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and Dianne Feinstein of California, face a different complication because they would be running simultaneously for reelection and the vice presidency.
If Lieberman won the vice presidency, his Senate replacement would be picked by the state's Republican governor. But Feinstein faces a tougher reelection battle than Lieberman, political analysts said. If she wins the vice presidency and the Senate race, her Senate replacement would be picked by a Democratic governor. But she could risk losing her Senate campaign because she would have to spend so much time out of state.
Feinstein's press secretary, Howard Gantman, said this is ''not an issue for her because she is running for the US Senate.''
Yet another prospect, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, comes from a state where a Democratic governor would appoint a replacement until a special election is held in 2002, although Bayh's seat is not up until 2004. Thus, a Democratic replacement could lose in the Republican-leaning state.
Political analyst Stu Rothenberg said the bottom line is that Democrats ''will do whatever they feel they need to do. If they thought John Kerry or Dick Durbin was what they needed to win, they would do that.''
With so many complications, some Kerry backers are privately suggesting that he is the best choice among the senators. The Kerry partisans note that his term is up in 2002, and Massachusetts has a history of electing mostly Democrats to the Senate. At worst, Kerry backers believe, a Republican would hold the seat for only two years. These partisans say the best-known possible Republican contender, former Governor William F. Weld, has moved to New York.
Bush, of course, is also weighing many factors as he mulls his choice of running mates. But the senatorial calculus is not as complex for Bush because Republicans are considered likely to retain control of the Senate even if they lose the seat of his vice presidential choice.
Kerry, in an interview last week, insisted he is not campaigning to be Gore's running mate, as some have suggested. Instead, he said an article about his prospects should read: ''Senator Kerry refused to engage in any speculation.''
But Kerry has fueled speculation by saying he is ''flattered'' to be considered and has not ruled out accepting the job.
Kerry's biggest booster within the Gore campaign may be Michael Whouley, a former Kerry aide who is now Gore's senior political adviser.
''It is obvious that John Kerry for a number of reasons would be a qualified candidate,'' said Whouley, who is not shy about promoting the senator. ''John Kerry brings a lot of strengths. What is obvious is there is a generational synergy, two Vietnam veterans. John Kerry looks like he would be ready for the presidency. He would have strong debating skills. He is a hell of a campaigner, and he won the toughest Senate race of 1996 against Bill Weld.''
''In my opinion, John Kerry would be a strong choice,'' Whouley said. ''That is the advice I will give to Al Gore.''
Another Kerry tie to the campaign is the political consulting firm of Shrum, Devine, and Donilon, which produced Kerry's television commercials in 1996 and works for the vice president.
Kerry's biggest drawback may be geography, since New England is already Gore's most solid region.
But if geography were all-important, Clinton of Arkansas would not have picked another Southerner, Gore of Tennessee.
Gore's choice for vice president is likely to hinge on what Bush does. Bush must select his running mate by the time the Republican convention gets underway July 31. Gore can wait another two weeks before the Democratic convention.
