he George W. Bush rolled out for a friendly sparring round on ''Meet the Press'' Sunday was prepped, barbered, and wound up.
This was a home game in Austin for ''Dubbaya,'' with interlocutor Tim Russert playing jocular guest to His Young Majesty's gracious host. It was very palsy-walsy. You don't play tough-guy with the front-runner unless you're Andy Hiller, whose next one-on-one with any member of the Bush dynasty will not come before the year 2044.
With what we are coming to recognize as Boy George's permanently furrowed brow, his jut-jawed assertiveness, and slightly off-putting habit of repeating words and whole phrases as he searches the 53-year-old old memory bank, Young George laid out his vision of the world and how that fits in with what he calls ''my job as future president of the United States.''
Some of the rest of us might prefer an election before the coronation. But Dubbaya is forcing the calendar. ''I intend to be the president,'' he confided. And just in case Russert entertained any Hiller-esque inclinations, Bush was ready for any potential stumpers: ''I realize people will replay my statements on shows like this three years into my presidency.''
He's not only past the inauguration of 2001, he's already into 2004, when he'll be running for reelection! Here's a guy who's ready for the history books. How do I know? Just listen: ''I'm a history major at Yale. I learned a lot of good history there.'' A real intellectual on top of everything else. But the Boy George of the Bubble Boy campaign, sequestered so long by his Austin mafia, is now hip-deep in voters in New Hampshire, trying to stem the erosion caused by the John McCain rip tide. Bush's big early lead in New Hampshire proved to be Kennedy-esque. As used to be said of Ted Kennedy in the year he ran for president, he peaked the day he announced.
A fresh AP poll of New Hampshire puts Bush at 44 percent, McCain at 36, and no one else in double digits. Al Gore is at 43 among Democrats, with Bill Bradley at 42 in the same survey. But the momentum shifts suggest that McCain is coming on as Bradley's previous lead erodes under steady Gore campaigning. Dollar Bill's reversion to Ye Olde Attack Mode, slamming Gore for being a venal campaign contribution collector, bespeaks the first hint of anxiety from Camp Bradley.
Bush's mother lode of campaign contributions and GOP endorsements makes him favored to win the nomination even if McCain clobbers him in New Hampshire. But Bush's handlers have rationed his exposure to debate and confrontation, presumably so they can bring him up to speed on the complexities of issues. Bush has already ducked three appearances with his rivals, two in New Hampshire, but he's run out of excuses and is down for Dec. 2 in the Granite State. He'll get a faceful of pepper spray from the others, natch.
Bush also wants a constitutional amendment to ban all abortions except in the case of incest, rape, or to save the mother's life. But ''the country is not ready for a constitutional amendment,'' even though he is. How that will play depends on someone making an issue out of it.
He was noncommittal on NBC about whether he'd continue to support Boris Yeltsin as the Clinton administration has. He's not the only presidential hopeful who takes a pass on toughies. There is a curious disconnect between his sober-sided speech-and-interview routine, intended to buff up his meager credentials on foreign policy, and one TV ad he's running in New Hampshire.
In an obvious attempt to blunt the onrushing McCain's appeal to male voters impressed with the senator's gutsy war record, Bush is running a tough-guy, saber-rattling ad. We need more ''iron'' in our defense policies, more missiles, more aggressive defense of our borders, says George the Second.
It's a scary ad, juxtaposing a vulnerable little girl against violent video of the Gulf War attack on Baghdad launched by his father. But the problem with pitching to male aggressiveness is that you risk losing voters among females of more pacific values. Bush had held a significant edge among women in New Hampshire, drawn by his ''compassionate conservatism'' schtick and his let's-change-the-subject approach to abortion. But now he's tossing around missiles, ack-ack, and ''iron.'' We'll see how that survives passage through Gender Gap. In the Nov. 12 Concord Monitor, reporter Alec MacGillis examined the chasm of Gender Gap. Gore led Bradley in an AP-Dartmouth survey by 48-41 overall, but men favored Bradley 54-38, while Gore got the gals 53-35.
Bush led McCain 44-31 overall, but they were dead even among men; Bush's lead was totally female, because he led then by 47-26 among women. MacGillis quoted Dartmouth professor Lynn Vavoreck, who expects the gender gap to endure, theorizing that women are more likely to forgive Bill Clinton's indiscretions than men, a phenomenon noted elsewhere. Tipper Gore's popularity on the stump also helps Al over the is-he-a-stiff-or-what? hump.
Bush hopes some more warm-and-cuddly ads featuring his wife and kids will hold the women while he tosses his lariat over those stray males. But as this thing tightens and he has to get more aggressive on the stump to take on McCain, Bush will have to move deftly or risk driving off women.
David Nyhan is a Globe columnist.
