lthough underdogs Bill Bradley and John McCain are focused on a New Hampshire primary they cannot afford to lose, the fate of their presidential campaigns may well lie in other key states.
Even if Bradley, a Democrat, and McCain, a Republican, win their primaries in the Granite State, both know that March may still bring political Armageddon.
If Bradley wins in New Hampshire on Feb. 1 and New York on March 7 but loses the California primary (also March 7) to Vice President Al Gore, the front-runner, he might as well bid farewell to his chances of being the next president.
McCain, meanwhile, is doing well in New Hampshire and may even win that contest. But in the primaries that follow, polls show, his strength goes downhill faster than a skier in the Granite State's White Mountains.
Winning New Hampshire, which is by no means guaranteed, will keep the Bradley and McCain campaigns alive, but only a month longer. Most of the March primaries appear to heavily favor Gore and Republican George W. Bush.
A poll of voters, conducted by Quinnipiac College in Hamden, Conn., and released Thursday, gave Bradley a lead of 47 percent to 37 percent over Gore in the New Hampshire primary. But the same poll showed that 64 percent of the likely Democratic voters expect Gore to win the nomination, as opposed to 18 percent for Bradley. These voters do not think that Bradley can win enough state primaries to gain the nomination.
The poll also painted a similar scenario for McCain. While he leads Bush in New Hampshire, 37 percent to 28 percent, 65 percent of those polled believe Bush will win the nomination compared with 11 percent who expect McCain to be the nominee.
Other national polls outline essentially the same scenario. A recent CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll asked Republican and Democratic voters whom they would most likely support for their party's nomination. Among Republicans and those leaning Republican, 63 percent supported Bush and 18 percent were for McCain. Each of the four other GOP contenders, Steve Forbes, Orrin Hatch, Alan Keyes, and Gary Bauer, received 5 percent or less.
In South Carolina, Bush has a commanding lead over McCain. Indeed, Bush holds the lead in Southern primaries overall.
As for Bradley, even if he does well in New Hampshire, New York, and Massachusetts, his biggest test will come in the California primary. If he wins it, his candidacy is likely to surge, creating a serious battle for the nomination at the Democratic National Convention this summer. But if Bradley loses California, that could be the end of his campaign, since most of the Southern primaries appear locked up for Gore.
While these and other polls don't mean that Bradley's and McCain's presidential bids are futile, they certainly indicate the rough road ahead - even if they can turn a New Hampshire victory into increased support in future contests, as candidates in past years have sometimes done.
Another key factor that may also be working against Bradley and McCain is the makeup of their campaign staffs. Both Gore and Bush have seasoned campaigners on their staff, more so than Bradley or McCain.
For example, Gore has Michael Whouley, the person who guided Clinton through the Gennifer Flowers episode that nearly wrecked his campaign at the outset. Whouley and a number of other veteran campaign advisers give Gore a competitive edge over Bradley.
The same goes for Bush. Not only does Bush have money to burn in his bid to become the next president, he has the help of veteran advisers from his father's national campaigns.
Both Gore and Bush have advisers who can help them overcome campaign blunders, while Bradley and McCain are more vulnerable to rookie mistakes.
However much the battles for the Democratic and Republican nominations may be predetermined, the underdogs maintain hope in the unexpected - that something will happen to change the odds.
But if Bush and Gore do not encounter major problems along the way to their national conventions, there is very little that Bradley and McCain can do to change the likely outcome.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
