hen the nation's voters cast their ballots on Nov. 7, they will determine not only whether Al Gore or George W. Bush becomes president; they will also decide the fate of the GOP-controlled US House of Representatives.
As most political analysts have pointed out in recent weeks, Democrats are now within range of winning the six seats needed to retake control of the House.
A lot, of course, depends on how many voters turn out on Election Day, and on which presidential candidate prevails. Most pollsters maintain the race is still too close to call, regardless of polls showing Gore or Bush up or down by a few percentage points.
But if voters end up giving Gore the victory, there is a strong chance they also will back Democrats in key congressional races across the nation.
Of course, a lot also will depend on how well Green Party candidate Ralph Nader does. The Gore campaign is concerned, for good reason, that Nader could win just enough votes in certain states to tip them to Bush.
Even in California, where a Gore win is expected, Nader could influence the outcome of some congressional races, as well as Gore's margin of victory. If Nader's supporters, many of whom would otherwise back Gore, vote only the Green Party ticket, it could deny Democrats key House victories.
To counter the broader possibility that Nader could deny him a presidential victory, Gore has begun to use Nader's name in his campaign tour in key states. For example, he told voters last week that if they want to support ''big oil,'' to vote for Bush and/or Nader.
Gore has not directly stated that a vote for Nader is a vote for Bush, but that suggestion comes across in his remarks. And Gore supporters have been saying it more clearly as they see Nader's percentage climbing in key states.
Gore could help diminish Nader's impact in these closing days of the campaign by returning to his populist themes, comparing his own environmental record to Bush's strong support of the huge oil corporations that threaten much of the nation's wilderness.
By delivering that message, Gore is improving the odds of Democratic victories in the several states with close House races. Two of them are at opposite ends of the country: New Hampshire, which has two close contests, and Florida, with another two. That's four of the six seats the Democrats need to take control of the House.
New Hampshire's 1st and 2nd districts have Democratic challengers attempting to unseat GOP incumbents, and the Democrats feel they have a chance of winning both seats. The 1st District matches up Martha Clark, a five-time state representative from Portsmouth, against Republican John Sununu Jr., whose father was governor of the state and then, for a time, President Bush's chief of staff. The Clark-Sununu matchup is suggestive of the Gore-Bush battle, with some exceptions.
Clark, like Gore, champions education, health insurance, and abortion rights. Sununu, as does Bush, supports a big tax cut. Unlike Bush, Sununu does not give the impression that he champions education, particularly since he strongly favors the abolition of the US Department of Education. Environmental groups, including the Sierra Club and the League of Conservation Voters, say Sununu has one of the worst environmental records in New England, and the AFL-CIO has given him a zero on his labor record.
Sununu, according to some polls, has been leading Clark by as many as 10 points in recent days, but Democrats believe their candidate still has a good chance of unseating him, especially if Gore does well against Bush in the Granite State.
In the 2nd District race, Democrats are hoping that, in Barney Brannen, they have the right candidate to defeat GOP incumbent Charlie Bass. Brannen, president of the Lyme school board, has raised more money than Bass in this contest, but Bass is still ahead in the polls.
The state AFL-CIO and other Democratic-leaning organizations are planning for Brannen the same Election Day turnout effort that helped Gore defeat Bill Bradley in the primary. Bass is hoping that his conservative stands on education, including his vote against special funds, will work to his advantage again.
In Florida, two races for Republican-held seats are seen as either tossups or running slightly in the Democrats' favor. One is Democratic state Senator Elaine Bloom's race against incumbent GOP Representative Clay Shaw, who has been in office for 20 years. In a district that reportedly holds the largest population of seniors in the country, Bloom's odds are enhanced by the fact that her views on prescription drugs and health care for the elderly overlap neatly with Gore's.
The other race, in a district that includes Orlando, Democrat Linda Chapin is given a strong chance to beat GOP contender Ric Keller. They are battling for the seat vacated by GOP Representative Bill McCollum's US Senate seat bid.
There are several other close congressional races coast-to-coast that will determine which party controls the House. Gore must attract a large voter turnout to ensure not just his own victory, but that of key Democratic congressional candidates. Democrats know how important it is to have a House that can work with, and not against, a Democratic president.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
