ANCHESTER, N.H. - When Steve Forbes's caucus vote crept above 30 percent last Monday night, assuring him of a strong second-place finish in Iowa, his happy advisers laid out a wistful scenario of how the Texas colossus, Governor George W. Bush, could be brought down.
According to their theory, Bush will be bloodied by Senator John McCain in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary. Weakened by a loss in that state, Bush would then be subjected to one-two punches - from Forbes on the right and McCain on the left - in subsequent primaries, and the favorite in the Republican race would collapse in spite of his $70 million treasury.
The concept is composed of a mixture of political history, strategic planning, and wishful thinking.
McCain's political director, John Weaver, dismisses the idea. The Forbes campaign is not strong enough to support the right flank of a pincer movement, he said, because Forbes has no substantial operation on the ground beyond New Hampshire.
Bush's campaign operatives insist that the Texas governor is better fortified than his adversaries in the states that lie ahead and can withstand any challenges from Forbes or McCain.
Nevertheless, as Bush stares at the possibility of defeat in New Hampshire, Forbes and McCain find themselves engaged in a temporary alliance of convenience that will play itself out over an intense schedule of primaries in the coming weeks.
McCain's strategy to stay out of Iowa appeared to be vindicated by Forbes's ability to hold down Bush's winning margin. And now that Forbes appears to be lagging in New Hampshire, it will be McCain's turn to throw an obstacle in Bush's path.
The other two Republican candidates, Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes, do not figure in the long-range equation because the one-dimensional nature of their antiabortion campaigns poses little threat.
McCain is already looking ahead to a duel with Bush in South Carolina, which hosts the next major primary, on Feb. 19. While Forbes's aides are vague about their candidate's plans for South Carolina, they say the magazine magnate may try to upset Bush in Delaware, a state Forbes won in 1996, in a primary there on Feb. 8. Forbes is also preparing for a major confrontation with Bush in Michigan on Feb. 22, the same day McCain expects to win the primary in his home state, Arizona.
The schedule could keep Bush busy.
''I've looked at this possibility for some time,'' said John Maxwell, a senior adviser to Forbes. ''It looks like 1968, when Richard Nixon was the establishment candidate.'' New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller ''ran from the left and picked up a significant number of delegates. Ronald Reagan collected a number of delegates - mostly from California - and Nixon went to the convention in Miami Beach with just under 50 percent.'' The only reason Nixon prevailed, Maxwell recalled, was because he won procedural contests that gave him all the votes of three state delegations.
Forbes vowed last week that he will emerge from the Republican struggle as the ''true conservative'' in the race. And unlike 1968, when the right ultimately failed to stop Nixon, his advisers say the most conservative candidate will win the GOP nomination this year.
''Bush made a strategic mistake by trying to lock up the moderates,'' Maxwell said. ''He's losing them now - lock, stock, and barrel - to McCain.''
Members of McCain's team acknowledge that Forbes's 30-point performance in Iowa helped take some of the luster off Bush's victory, bruising the Texan before a tough fight in New Hampshire. But they say McCain can win the nomination on his own, as a candidate defying the Bush machine and capturing the public's imagination.
They, too, are drawing on historical parallels. After enduring a series of defeats in 1976, Reagan's campaign suddenly caught fire and nearly toppled his own party's president, Gerald Ford, with a closing rush.
New Hampshire primaries also produced dramatic results in Democratic contests. In 1968, Eugene McCarthy's second-place finish shocked President Lyndon B. Johnson and helped drive him from the White House; in 1976, Jimmy Carter won his first great victory; and in 1984, Gary Hart rocked the sure-bet candidacy of Walter F. Mondale.
