ith the start of the fall campaign season approaching, more voters will begin paying serious attention to the presidential race.
Much of the current discussion centers on the latest national polls. But national polls often disguise the contest in the Electoral College, where the race is really decided.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan won just 51 percent of the popular vote against Jimmy Carter. But since winning a state's popular vote by even the narrowest of margins brings all of that state's Electoral College votes, Reagan won 91 percent of Electoral College votes in 1980.
Understanding the state-by-state races that drive the Electoral College votes tells us more about the candidates strategies and likely outcomes than do national surveys.
Between 1968 and 1988, a Republican presidential candidate could count on starting the race with 191 electoral votes, coming from the 21 states that Republicans carried in all six presidential elections. That Republican base left the Democratic nominee with the daunting task of carrying 78 percent of the remaining electoral votes to win. As a result, Republicans won five of those six presidential elections, with only the candidacy of a Southern governor in the wake of Watergate breaking the string in 1976.
Bill Clinton, with an assist from Ross Perot, changed all that. States in all regions of the countryincluding the electoral powerhouses of California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and New Jersey abandoned their consistent Republican voting in the earlier period to support Clinton in both 1992 and 1996.
Without either Clinton or Perot on the ballot, will the 2000 election follow the pattern of the 1990s, or revert to the pattern of the prior two decades? The accompanying electoral map paints the Electoral College picture by placing states into four categories based on their presidential voting in 1968-1988 compared to 1992-1996.
The enduring Republican base: 16 states with 135 electoral votes.
These states supported the GOP nominee in at least four of the six elections from 1968 to 1988, along with both elections in the 1990s. These states constitute the now familiar of Republican presidential support, encompassing most of the South, the rural Midwest, and Mountain West. The Republican base gives George W. Bush a starting point of 135 electoral votes.
The weakened Republican base: five states with 57 electoral votes.
The Republican nominee defeated the Democratic nominee in these states in at least four of the six elections from 1968 to 1988, but only once in the 1990s. These states fill in the of Republican presidential support.
The lost Republican base: 22 states with 265 electoral votes.
The Republican nominee defeated the Democratic nominee in these 22 states in at least four of the six elections from 1968 to 1988, but Bill Clinton won all 22 states in both 1992 and 1996. These states cover the Northeast, the Pacific West, the border South, and the bulk of the Midwest.
The enduring Democratic base: seven states plus the District of Columbia with 81 electoral votes.
These states voted for the Republican nominee in no more than three (and usually fewer) elections between 1968 and 1988, and neither time in the 1990s. Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia give Al Gore a base of 81 electoral votes.
The challenge for Bush: Bringing the five weakened Republican states firmly into the core of GOP support is obviously the first step. These five states - Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Florida, and Montana - are natural fits for the GOP electoral coalition based on their political culture and, with the exception of Georgia, recent voting history for down-ballot offices. According to the most recent statewide polls, Bush leads in all five. Along with the states that have voted consistently Republican in the 1990s, these five create a new GOP base of 192 electoral votes, over 70 percent of those needed to win.
The greater challenge involves bringing sufficient lost Republican states back into the fold to create an Electoral College majority. Based on the average margin of GOP defeats in 1992 and 1996, these states fall evenly into two groups, with a special case for Arkansas and Tennessee, home states of the Democratic nominees in the 1990s.
The single-digit deficit states.
Leaving aside Arkansas and Tennessee, the Republican nominees in the 1990s lost each of 10 states in the lost Republican base by average single-digit margins. Kentucky, Nevada, and Ohio are the most promising states in this category. President Bush and Bob Dole lost all three states by average margins no greater than 4 percentage points. Moreover, Ohio Republicans control the governorship and both US Senate seats, while in Kentucky both senators are Republicans.
The average margin of the Bush and Dole defeats ranges from 5 to 9 percentage points in Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All of these lost Republican-base states are prime targets for Republican resurgence. Republicans hold all three major statewide offices in Pennsylvania, and two of three in Missouri, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.
The most recent polls show Bush leading Vice President Gore in each state except New Mexico, where the candidates are tied.
These 10 states contain 103 electoral votes, more than enough to win when coupled with the 192 votes in the new Republican base.
The double-digit deficit states.
These 10 lost Republican states will be more challenging to bring back into the fold, with President Bush and Senator Dole losing each by average double-digit margins. Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey are the most promising of these 10 since they have had statewide Republican candidates perform well in recent elections.
The Northeast constitutes one of the two most troubling regions for GOP presidential contenders. Nominees in the 1990s lost Connecticut, Maine, and Vermont by average margins of 12 to 20 percentage points. Coupled with the enduring Democratic base states of Massachusetts, New York, and Rhode Island, the Northeast is developing into one of the two regional bases of the Democratic party.
The other troubling region for George W. Bush is the Pacific West, including California, Oregon, and Washington. While all three consistently supported Republican presidential nominees in the 1968-1988 period, Republican nominees in the 1990s lost each of the three states by average margins ranging from 10 to 14 percentage points.
Regaining the Northeast and Pacific West portions of the lost Republican base presents an enormous challenge. The cultural and philosophical differences between these two regions and the enduring Republican bases of the South and Mountain West create inherent tension.
In 1984, Ronald Reagan's 49-state sweep showed that Republicans should never write off any state. But the Bush campaign needs to lock down the base states before expending substantial resources in the Northeast and Pacific West. Ralph Nader's candidacy may facilitate a win in one of these states, however, and Gore cannot afford to lose any of them.
Special cases: Democratic-voting but actually Republican.
Arkansas and Tennessee are special cases as the homes of the Democratic nominees in the 1990s. Republicans hold two of the three major statewide offices in Arkansas, and all three in Tennessee, reflecting the Republican surge throughout the rest of the South. Despite Gore's presence on the Democratic ticket, Bush lost Tennessee by less than 5 percentage points in 1992, and Dole lost by just over 2 points. Without a native son on the Democratic ticket, Arkansas should quickly become part of the Republican electoral base. Al Gore may be able to keep Tennessee in the Democratic column for one more cycle despite its support for Republicans statewide, but even that is not a foregone conclusion.
The new geographical coalitions.
So where does that leave Bush? The Republican base in 2000 is weaker than in the 1980s, but stronger than the 1996 outcome would suggest. The 21 enduring and likely Republican states produce a Republican base of 192 electoral votes. The Democratic base remains smaller than the Republican base despite Democratic successes in the 1990s. Adding the Northeast except New Hampshire and the Pacific West states of California, Oregon, and Washington to the enduring Democratic states yields a new Democratic base of 168 electoral votes.
The election will be decided by the other 14 states that voted for Clinton twice but have a long history of Republican voting. Starting with 192 electoral votes, the GOP nominee needs less than one-fourth of the remaining electoral votes to win. Recent polls show Bush tied or ahead in 11 of these states, indicating that he can reconstruct a GOP-winning coalition.
Whit Ayres and Jon McHenry are GOP pollsters based in Atlanta.
