ANCHESTER, N.H. - This was going to be Steve Forbes's moment four years ago. He was on the cover of Time and Newsweek, he was on the verge of being endorsed by Jack Kemp, and he was the talk of New Hampshire - but still he plummeted to fourth in the New Hampshire primary and, before the first day of spring, had dropped out of the nomination race.
Now Forbes again is seeking his moment, but it is one filled with wild uncertainty and worrisome trends. Forbes's political hero, Kemp, yesterday endorsed his political rival, George W. Bush. Forbes complained he was ignored in Wednesday's Republican debate, which focused on Bush and Senator John McCain, who are virtually tied atop the polls. The latest Boston Globe poll shows Forbes a distant third, with 11 percent support.
Yesterday, as his campaign bus idled in the parking lot of a Manchester restaurant, Forbes insisted in an interview with Globe reporters that his campaign was catching on. Asked about Kemp, he issued a curt dismissal of his longtime close friend, saying the onetime NFL quarterback and former congressman ''is part of the political establishment.''
''For years, Jack was on the cutting edge of tax cuts and junking the tax code,'' Forbes said. ''Obviously he has gone back on that. The establishment is rallying around Bush; they know now that Bush is in danger. I think we will see more and more evidence that the establishment has met its match in me.''
Despite his tough talk, it was clearly a painful day for Forbes, who in 1995 spent months urging Kemp to run for president. When Kemp decided not to run, Forbes decided to run himself, carrying the supply-side banner for the Republican Party.
Kemp, appearing with Bush yesterday in Nashua, called Forbes an ''outstanding human being'' who was best qualified to be treasury secretary, not president. ''I really believe Governor Bush is the one that can inspire the Congress, inspire the nation, and win a mandate for bringing down the tax rates,'' Kemp said.
Forbes's campaign manager, Bill Dal Col, said Kemp made the endorsement partly because his son-in-law, Scott Andrews, is a business partner of Bush's brother, Marvin Bush. ''That is a big part of the reason,'' Dal Col said. ''It is sure not philosophy or ideology.''
Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer confirmed the relationship but said the endorsement was purely ''ideological.''
So yesterday, Forbes touted the endorsement he received from the Manchester Union-Leader, which he called more powerful than ''50 Jack Kemps,'' and prepared to dig once again into his personal wealth to finance a new advertising campaign. There is good reason to think he could heavily influence the outcome of the primary. Forbes said his strategy will rely on taking antiabortion voters away from Keyes and Bush, and drawing antitax voters from McCain and Bush.
This is markedly different from Forbes's last presidential run. In 1996, Forbes rarely mentioned abortion in speeches and usually talked about the subject only if asked. This time around, Forbes is running an antiabortion ad that shows a sonogram of a fetus.
Forbes, who has five daughters, was asked in the interview what he would do if one of them became pregnant while a minor - the same question posed to John McCain Wednesday. Forbes responded that if his daughter was a minor under the law, ''we will have that child brought to term.'' If his daughter was over 18, ''You're an adult. We would urge her to bring the baby to term.''
The dilemma for Forbes is that what worked well for him in Iowa may be a hindrance in New Hampshire. He collected 31 percent of the caucus vote with a heavy appeal to religious conservatives and a strong antiabortion pitch. But in New Hampshire, the Christian Coalition has little influence and polls show most voters favor abortion rights.
Still, Forbes has reason to hope for a surprise. In Iowa, he was at 20 percent in the polls on Sunday, but got 31 percent in the caucuses Monday as many Iowans embraced his claim that he is the ''conservative alternative'' to Bush, with the money to last through a long primary fight. And, on economics at least, antitax New Hampshire should provide a receptive audience for Forbes's flat-tax appeal.
But Forbes may be being hurt by a lasting image of the 1996 primary - a series of devastating ''attack'' ads that Forbes ran against Bob Dole, which helped Patrick Buchanan emerge from the pack to win the primary. Dole is now featured in an ad sponsored by the moderate Republican Leadership Council in which he says that Forbes's attack ads left him ''bruised and broke'' as he headed toward the general election. Voters are being reminded of a darker side of Forbes's image.
But Forbes's campaign is not nearly as negative as four years ago. In one ad that might be considered an attack, he accuses Bush of reneging on a no-tax pledge. But most of Forbes's ads have focused on his issues and beliefs. In recent days, Forbes has begun running antiabortion ads, primarily a preemptive effort to prevent supporters from drifting to Keyes or Gary Bauer, who rate abortion their top issue.
It is not clear how enthusiastically Forbes's message is being received. So far in New Hampshire, Forbes's crowds have been smaller and more subdued than those in Iowa. In part, that may reflect a strategy that is emphasizing radio and television appearances above in-the-flesh campaigning; since returning from Iowa, Forbes has been averaging about two public appearances a day.
Some members of the lunch crowd at the Puritan Backroom Restaurant in Manchester seemed underwhelmed yesterday as Forbes visited their tables, making awkward small talk and asking for votes.
John J. Pawloski, a Manchester retiree who has been a Republican all his life said he liked some things about Forbes - but not the flat tax.
''I myself don't see how a flat tax is going to work,'' Pawloski said over lunch at the Backroom restaurant. ''It's going to knock the stuffing out of the working man.'' Pawloski, who said he is supporting Bush, added that Forbes is ''funny-looking.''
But his wife, Susan, disagreed. ''He's a handsome man,'' she said. ''He looks much better in person that he does on TV. He's got a nice suit on.''
Globe reporter Anne Kornblut, traveling with Bush, contributed to this report.
