GOP candidates feeding increased appetite for tax cuts

By Ron Fournier, Associated Press, 01/12/00

WASHINGTON -- With the economy booming and government surpluses soaring, Republican voters are demanding that Washington loosen its grip on its extra cash and slash taxes.

The GOP presidential candidates are scrambling to heed the call.

"You leave this money in Washington, I guarantee you those guys'll spend it," Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah said in Monday night's presidential debate.

An echo was heard Tuesday from front-runner George W. Bush, who told voters in Florence, S.C: "Instead of leaving the money in Washington, where I believe it will be spent on bigger government, I intend to pass it to the taxpayers of South Carolina."

Republican voters always hunger for tax cuts, but the strong economy may have increased their appetites.

"It's a whole new world since 1996," said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who is not tied to any of the campaigns. "What has changed is going from deficit politics to surplus politics -- and that has increased the argument for some sort of tax cut."

While working for Lamar Alexander's failed 1996 campaign, Ayres asked likely Iowa caucus-goers to identify the "single most important problem" facing the country. The federal deficit ranked first, picked by 17 percent of the voters, with morality and crime a close second.

All other issues, including taxes, were in single digits.

This week, Ayres polled 300 likely Iowa caucus-goers and asked them to identify the "single most important political issues." Topping the list at 22 percent was tax cuts, followed closely by morality.

In New Hampshire, 1996 exit polls showed that tax cuts were less important to voters than the economy and jobs. This year, tax cuts easily top the economy as a concern, campaign pollsters say.

National surveys of Republicans suggest that the nation's morals are a greater concern than tax rates, though tax cuts are consistently ranked high.

All avowed tax-cutters, the presidential candidates are squabbling over how to split up the spoils of a surging economy.

The field's top three prospects -- Texas Gov. Bush, Arizona Sen. John McCain and publisher Steve Forbes -- are battling over how much of the surplus should be spent on tax reductions and who can be trusted to keep the tax-cutting pledge.

Bush has proposed a $483 billion, five-year tax package that would spend a large chunk of projected surpluses.

McCain, whose package is half the size of Bush's, sets aside 23 percent of future surpluses for tax cuts and dedicates the rest to paying down the national debt and bolstering Social Security and Medicare.

A prominent GOP pollster recently gave voters in early primary states a choice between a generic candidate who supports tax cuts and a candidate who "supports protecting and preserving Social Security." Nearly half took the Social Security candidiate, and less than 40 percent sided with the tax cutter.

"In a recession, Republicans want a quick influx of cash. That's why (Presidents) Reagan and Kennedy both correctly cut across-the-board rates during economic downturns," said McCain adviser Dan Schnur. "That's why John McCain has devised a plan that includes a significant tax cut and saves Social Security. It addresses both the short- and long-terms."

Each campaign argue that it is driving the tax debate.

Forbes pollster John McLaughlin said Bush proposed a large tax cut only after he saw that Forbes was capable of "getting traction in Iowa. All of a sudden, he's a born-again tax cutter."

After the Texan introduced his plan, rival campaigns noticed that his poll numbers climbed, particularly among economic conservatives who normally tilt to Forbes.

Fearing his base would be seduced by Bush's plan, Forbes decided to air ads accusing the governor of breaking a no-new-tax pledge in Texas. Bush is now polling to see whether he needs to air a response ad.

To Republican voters, the issue is simple: Washington can't be trusted with the economic windfall.

Tax cuts are "a very important issue to me," said Gerald Scott, a retiree from St. Albans, Vt. "I have children growing up and a lot of grandchildren; I'd like to see them make a good living."

Mildred Hendricks, 64, of Greensboro, N.C., said would like to cheaper health care insurance and lower taxes -- two reasonable requests, she said, with "as much extra money as they've got up there in Washington."