GOP candidates looking to Michigan's Democrats

By Michael Kranish and Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff, 2/22/2000

ETROIT - On the eve of the Republican primary here, Democratic voters were the prize.

Senator John McCain, asserting that ''everybody's against me'' and calling himself the victim of a character assassination campaign, raced through Michigan yesterday seeking support from independents and Democrats for today's potential make-or-break primary vote.

Meanwhile, George W. Bush responded that he, too, was reaching across party lines in the open primary, citing the example of a top Texas Democrat who crossed party lines to support his run for governor in 1998.

The dueling effort by the two main Republican presidential candidates to seek Democratic votes underscored one way in which the race here may be different from South Carolina's, which Bush won with mostly conservative Republican votes. In Michigan, the turnout is expected to include many more moderate Republicans, Democrats, and independents than was the case in the Palmetto State.

With the two candidates dashing through Michigan over the past two days, this industrial powerhouse state has turned into a sort of madcap Republican road rally and proving ground. The outcome could have a dramatic impact on the chances of McCain or Bush to pick up momentum - and the nomination. Separately, McCain's home state of Arizona is also holding a Republican primary today, with McCain far ahead in the polls there.

McCain, at a town hall meeting in Traverse City in upstate Michigan, accused Bush of ''character assassination'' as the Texas governor competes for the presidency in what McCain called the ''worst way.''

At another point, McCain said Bush and the state establishment, led by Governor John Engler, were against him.

''I'm telling you, they're shooting at me from everywhere. Everybody's against me, Governor Engler, Governor Bush, all the governors, all the senators. But we're going to kill them, right, we're going to get them.''

Bush, campaigning furiously across Michigan with Engler by his side, expressed the confidence he has had before every previous primary - even the one he lost, New Hampshire. ''I like what I feel here in Michigan,'' he said, hailing a party ''organization that's been in place quite awhile.''

He stood up to charges, made by McCain, that he had failed to achieve any real reforms as Texas governor. Repeating his self-description as a ''reformer with results,'' Bush said he had overhauled the tax code and the education system, raising test scores in the public schools.

At a news conference in Detroit, Bush even fell back on the support he once received from the now-deceased Democratic lieutenant governor of Texas. Bob Bullock, he said, ''endorsed my candidacy'' during the gubernatorial race of 1998.

''You might want to explain to Senator McCain that Lieutenant Governor Bob Bullock thought I had done such a good job as the governor of Texas that he crossed party lines to endorse my candidacy when I ran against a Democrat,'' Bush said. ''Given the chance to lead, given the chance to set an agenda, I have done so in my state of Texas.''

In Michigan, the race was a dead heat in numerous polls.

''It's a nip and tuck race,'' said Mike Murphy, McCain's media strategist, eyeing polls showing McCain with a slim, two-point edge.

Secretary of State Candice S. Miller, who supports Bush, is expecting a record turnout in a race that drew just 11 percent, or about 525,000 voters, during the 1996 and 1992 presidential contests. This year, she says about 900,000 people may vote in the primary. This state of about 10 million people has about 7 million registered voters.

Several factors could determine the race:

Religious conservatives. The religious conservative movement, which swept Bush to victory in South Carolina, is not as strong here. But the state has a heavy concentration of Catholics, some of whom were offended by Bush's visit to Bob Jones University in Greenville, S.C., where school officials have described Catholicism as a cult to beware of.

Reagan Democrats. In South Carolina, where many former Democrats have long since become Republicans, Democrats accounted for 9 percent of the turnout. But here many Democrats have remained in the party as conservative ''Reagan Democrats,'' just the sort of voter that McCain is seeking.

Minority voters. In South Carolina, 1 percent of the voter turnout was by blacks. In Michigan, however, a significantly higher number may turn out.

The Bush campaign yesterday gave reporters a copy of what it called a flier from the McCain campaign that urged Democrats to vote for the Arizona senator.

Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, said, ''It's all a question of turnout. Do the independents and Democrats turn out and vote in this thing?''

In 1996, Ballenger said, about 26 percent of the voters in the Republican race were Democrats and independents. This year, there have been estimates of 35 percent to 40 percent, he said. ''If it is, McCain is just killing Bush with those people.''

Either way, both candidates view Michigan as crucial to McCain's future.

''If he doesn't win here, where's he going to win?'' asked Joseph A. Schlesinger, a professor emeritus of political science at Michigan State University, referring to McCain. ''It leaves him with really relatively little direction to go in.''

Bush, meanwhile, seemed anxious to assume he will be the nominee and that Vice President Al Gore will be his Democratic opponent. Bush seemed indignant after Gore's comment that Bush was not committed to racial issues, especially after his visit to Bob Jones University. The school bans interracial dating. Of Gore, Bush said: ''Shame on him. Shame on him.

''Did you see our rally yesterday?'' Bush challenged reporters. ''We had a rally 1,000 or more people from all walks of life that came out to support me. What Vice President Gore loves to do is the typical Washington politics of calling people names. That's what he like to do. He likes the politics of personal destruction and America is sick of it.''

Globe reporter Jill Zuckman, traveling with McCain, contributed to this report. Kornblut traveled with Bush; Kranish wrote from Detroit.