ES MOINES - Over the past eight days they have quarreled with him in New Hampshire over taxes, dragged him into a Confederate battle flag controversy in South Carolina, and questioned his antiabortion commitment in Michigan, but so far they have failed to shake Texas Governor George W. Bush's advantage in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.
Today, in an Iowa debate, five Republican contenders will get their last clear shot at Bush before voting begins, and they are expected to try again to tarnish the man whose closest challenger is more than 25 points behind in public opinion polls in this state.
The debate, sponsored by the Des Moines Register and televised nationally, begins at 2 p.m. EST. It will last 90 minutes.
With Senator John McCain confining his campaign to New Hampshire, Steve Forbes has emerged as Bush's most vocal opponent in Iowa. But even as he attacks Bush, Forbes finds himself tussling with Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes for favor among a formidable Christian conservative faction in the Iowa GOP. Meanwhile, Senator Orrin G. Hatch has been unable to keep pace with the other campaigns and is running a distant sixth in the polls in Iowa.
The debate may be the only obstacle that could break Bush's stride. He has high poll numbers and an almost bottomless bank account. But as an example of how these events can change dynamics, Vice President Al Gore came out swinging from the first bell at last Saturday's Democratic debate in Iowa and succeeded in putting his challenger, Bill Bradley, on the defensive for much of the past week.
Rather than coasting on his lead, the Texas governor returned to Iowa yesterday to invigorate his network of supporters with a series of public appearances leading up to the debate.
Republican officials say Bush and Forbes have the two best organizations in the state, resources that are important because caucuses will be held in more than 2,100 places across Iowa on Jan. 24.
''We think we have the best ground operation in the state,'' said James Tobin, Forbes's political director. ''One of the things Steve learned from '96, when he started late, was that he needed a ground game as opposed to an air war.''
The football similes refer to the grass-roots organization Forbes has sown in each of Iowa's 99 counties this year to augment an extensive television campaign. In 1996, Forbes relied on the airwaves to attack Bob Dole. After being scolded for breaking the GOP's ''eleventh commandment'' - thou shalt say no evil of a fellow Republican - Forbes promised he would not repeat the tactics in 2000.
But the scion of the wealthy Forbes family has underwritten new ads accusing Bush of breaking a no-new-tax promise in Texas and holding fuzzy positions on abortion. He is expected to be aggressive today.
Asked this week about the commercials aimed at Bush, Forbes told reporters: ''If being negative is telling the truth, I will tell the truth.''
Forbes, a tireless exponent of a flat tax in 1996, is emphasizing social issues. In a question that unwittingly hinted at the inevitability of Bush's triumph, Forbes, during a debate in Grand Rapids, Mich., on Monday night, asked Bush to pledge to choose ''only pro-life judges'' and a ''pro-life running mate.''
''That's the exact same question Mr. Bauer asked me during the last couple of debates,'' Bush answered wearily.
''Four times,'' Bauer deadpanned. ''Not that anybody's counting.''
''I will work to keep the Republican Party pro-life,'' Bush said and made no further promises. ''I appreciate your assumption about me being the party nominee,'' he told Forbes.
According to a Des Moines Register poll published a week ago, Bush led Forbes 45 percent to 18 percent, with Keyes, McCain, and Bauer in single-digits and closely bunched for third. A survey for Midwest television stations released midweek showed similar results, with Bush ahead of Forbes 46 percent to 17 percent.
McCain's appearance at today's forum will be his first outing in Iowa since a mid-December debate. Though he has made virtually no investment in the state in terms of personal time, television commercials, or staff, the program will give the Arizona senator another chance to engage Bush on questions involving taxes and foreign policy. In previous debates, the two candidates, who are locked in a close race in New Hampshire, have sparred over leadership credentials.
The other candidates have largely become part of a supporting cast. Frustrated by a shortage of funds, Bauer and Keyes have had to rely on their debating skills and cadres of dedicated followers among the religious right to stay in the contest. Hatch's constituency appears even more minuscule.
