Wait just a minute. Before Republicans take House Democratic Minority Leader Dick Gephardt's self-serving advice and abandon all hope of retaining their majority in the House; before this latter-day Dante starts measuring the drapes in the speaker's office, a reality check is in order.
The truth is that the 2000 congressional election will be one of the most hard-fought in the nation's history; and although political pundits have been predicting the demise of House Republicans, that view is more myth than reality.
Myth No.1: The Democrats won the budget battle. The actual outcome of the '99 Battle of the Budget was closer to a draw than the Democrats' overblown claims of victory. Unlike past budget fights, this year the GOPshowed newfound sophistication by positively positioning themselves on a number of high-voltage political issues.
Predictably, the Democrats concentrated on the ''SHE'' issues - Social Security, health care, and education; but they failed to deliver a political knockout punch when Republicans fought back on Social Security with an innovative lockbox approach.
For the first time, Republicans cleverly linked pay-as-you-go budget policies to a strong Social Security system in a way voters could understand, and in doing so, inoculated themselves on this hotbed issue. Now, Democrats who propose big spending programs must either raise taxes or raid the trust fund - neither politically palatable options.
When it comes to education, Republicans seem to have learned some lessons from their bruising losses of the past. This time Republicans not only supported increases in education but also fought President Clinton to give states and local schools more flexibility to improve the quality of education. While the Democrats argued for more teachers, the GOP emphasized the need for better teachers, a far more persuasive political argument.
Congressional Republicans also increased funding for a seriously weakened military, and even managed a small across-the-board spending cut, all in all a respectable record.
Myth No. 2: Democrats are more in tune with what Americans want.
When it comes to voter perceptions on which party would better handle key issues, Republicans do have their work cut out for them. However, the problem they face is more style than substance. Polling data suggests that Democrats aren't right on the right issues. They've just been more successful in delivering their message.
Take education, for example. One recent survey done for the House GOP Conference chairman, J.C. Watts of Oklahoma, found that when given a simple choice between the Democrats' 100,000 teachers and smaller class size or the Republicans' more local control argument, voters chose the Democrats by a sizable margin. But when local control was defined as giving local schools the option to choose anything from more teachers to computers to teacher training, the numbers reversed; and Republicans easily won the education-handling issue.
Clearly, Democrats have a temporary advantage at best in the message wars, but the GOP has to sharpen its messages on all fronts.
Myth No. 3: The Democrats have reached parity with Republicans in the fund-raising arena. Despite Democrats' improved fund-raising capabilities, Republicans still hold a significant edge when it comes to attracting the financial support crucial to winning campaigns. As of the last available federal reporting period, the three national Republican committees have raised a total of $74 million - $22 million more than their Democrat counterparts.
Myth No. 4: The large number of open GOP seats makes it impossible for Republicans to hold the House. While pundits have made much of the disparity between the GOP's 19 and the Democrats' six open seats, the vast majority of these 19 districts are bedrock Republican territory. On the other side, three of the six Democratic open seats are in play. When it comes to incumbent vulnerability, neither party has an advantage.
So, can Republicans win the House in 2000? You bet, if they do three things.
First, don't let President Clinton set the political agenda. Republicans must go on the offense by aggressively articulating a Republican congressional issue platform before the State of the Union.
Next, as they set their agenda, they must remember that the election will be won in the middle. Extreme issues or issue positions will not only isolate them from the Republican presidential candidate, but also alienate them from an increasingly moderate electorate more interested in results than ideology.
Last, Republicans must embrace the kind of message discipline that has marked the Democrats' successful selling of America in the last two elections. When people understand what Republicans want to do, they agree with them more often than they disagree. Without a new commitment to message discipline, however, the public simply won't hear the Republicans agenda regardless of its appeal.
Richard N. Bond is former chairman of the Republican National Committee.
