URBANK, Calif. - Bucking tradition and conventional wisdom, George W. Bush bypassed a string of key battleground states yesterday to hit the prize of California, declaring he would win territory that by all appearances naturally belongs to Al Gore.
Bush has insisted all along that he will snatch California, a boast that has amused Gore officials and confounded Republican strategists who consider it a waste of precious time, especially with only eight days left in the campaign. But for Bush, the trip yesterday was an important display of confidence in the final hour - a yardstick by which voters could measure how well he is doing elsewhere, strategic proof that he has Gore's back against the wall.
Even if Bush does not win California - and most polls suggest he will not - his trips to the largest electoral state, broadcast around the country, give the impression he is surging in Democratic turf, several political analysts said. That could have an influence in neighboring Washington and Oregon, where Bush is still in pursuit of undecided independents and moderate Democrats. At the same time, his 16 visits to California have helped erode Gore's double-digit lead, prompting the vice president to schedule a campaign trip here today instead of campaigning in the Midwest.
With the race so tight, ''each candidate is trying to find some kind of a scintilla of momentum,'' and a perceived groundswell in California could give Bush just that, said Larry Gerston, a political science professor at San Jose State University.
''If he can spin it in such a way that even California seems winnable, that presents a fait accompli impression that will perhaps help some people think he's in,'' Gerston said. ''He wants people to believe that every state is winnable - that even the most Democratic state, absent New York, is winnable. Whether people believe it, that's another story.''
Bush insists they will, though recent history and the state's changing demographics suggest an uphill battle. After having a significant hold on California from the 1970s, the state Republican Party lost ground during the past decade, as the state gave its 54 electoral votes to Clinton in both 1992 and 1996 and the governorship to Democrat Gray Davis. There is now only one Republican in statewide office, and Republicans are concerned that if five of their US House seats swing to Democrats, they could be responsible for losing complete control of Congress.
That is one reason many suspect Bush has spent so much time here. After being written off in the last two presidential cycles, the Republican Party, with a powerful fund-raising base, has insisted Bush keep a ''broader agenda'' that includes the state's numerous House races, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field poll. ''That's been the strategy for Bush all along,'' he said. ''They looked down the road for the long-term health of the Republican Party in California.''
But there are signals that Bush also see gains for himself in highlighting his push in California, even if he may not, in the end, win here. On his way to Los Angeles yesterday, Bush stopped in New Mexico, where he mentioned his trip to California as a symbol of his campaign's growing popularity. There was little question his aim was to get the message across to both his core supporters and the national media.
''We're headed to California,'' he told supporters at an airport rally in Albuquerque. ''I know the pundits don't believe it, but you watch what happens. It's going to be Bush country.'' He made similar remarks back home in Texas, telling reporters early yesterday: ''The big surprise of this election year is, I'm going to win California.'' It is a line aides expect him to repeat today when he flies to Portland, Ore., and Seattle, contrasting his confidence with what they say seems like desperation on the part of Gore.
Just as the Bush campaign has challenged Gore in his home state of Tennessee - forcing him to spend resources there, and creating an embarrassing public relations situation - so too is the Texas governor trying to force Gore's hand in California, opening 310 county and local headquarters in the state and paying for 2 million campaign phone calls and 1.5 million pieces of literature. On top of that, the Bush campaign spent $2 million on TV ads last week alone.
''This is about bragging rights,'' said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California at Berkeley. ''I think it's right up there with Tennessee - as a stake in the heart.''
The effort has had little visible effect on Gore - who did not counter with TV ads of his own - until his visit today. And after a slight dip in state polls, he appears to have regained solid footing. Governor Davis, while calling the campaign swing ''worthwhile - because no Democrat can win the White House without carrying California's 54 votes,'' said he had no concerns about which way the state would turn a week from today.
''I am confident Al Gore will win this state,'' Davis said yesterday.
Although Gore aides say today's visit was long planned so the vice president could appear on ''The Tonight Show,'' the trip has given Bush fodder with which to ridicule him. ''Vice President Gore has been taking California for granted, and hasn't even been there since way back in September,'' Bush said on Sunday. ''I hear he's going to rush in at the last minute. But his spokesman said it's `primarily an opportunity to do the Leno program.' Well, you're looking at one candidate who has never lost sight of the importance of California.''
Yesterday, Bush took his personal jabs even further, accusing Gore of being unable to bridge the partisan divide. ''Washington is obsessed with scoring points, not solving problems,'' Bush said. ''There is so much anger, so much division, so much important work that's left undone.''
