ROBERT A. JORDAN

GOP moderates gain in appeal next to their radical right wing

By Robert A. Jordan, Globe Staff, March 14, 1999

In addition to thanking President Clinton and his Democratic colleagues in Congress, Vice President Albert Arnold Gore Jr. can also thank the ultra-right-wing Republicans for further enhancing his chances to be the next president.

Of course, his potential chief rival, Texas Governor George W. Bush, can also thank the ultra-right-wing Republicans for self-destructing over the impeachment process and enabling both himself and his moderate-to-conservative colleagues in the party to gain more control over the GOP's direction.

But Gore is likely to end up the chief beneficiary, because the Republicans' failed effort to nullify an election by removing Clinton from office is likely to bring a larger number of Democrats to the polls in 2000 to vent their anger. This not only bodes well for Gore, the party's probable nominee, it may also bode well for Democrats in the House and Senate.

Republicans -- who lost five House seats in November -- can expect to lose more seats in 2000 because of their continued efforts to remove Clinton, despite the strong objections of the majority electorate. Some pundits bluntly predict that voter anger at the GOP will result in the Democrats regaining control of both chambers in the next election.

Not even Bush's status as a moderate will prevent voters from voting Democratic. Even if Bush wins the presidency, some pundits predict, the GOP will still lose the House and Senate, because it was the right-wing element in the House and Senate, not Bush, that was responsible for the impeachment debacle.

As for Gore, there was one vote during the impeachment process that may prove to be of enormous help in his bid to succeed Clinton. That vote, which came after the GOP fell short of a majority on the perjury charge, was the 50-to-50 vote that also fell far short of the two-thirds necessary to convict Clinton on obstruction of justice.

Republicans had hoped for at least least one more vote so that they could claim that at least a majority of 51 senators had voted for conviction -- a fact they could then use against Democrats in 2000. But they fell short of the mark.

The defeat sapped the political strength from the ultra- right wing, fragmented the Republican Party, and gave the moderates a new opportunity to regain control and elect one of its own as the next president.

Also helped by the self-destruction of the GOP right is Elizabeth Dole, who hopes to become the nation's first woman president. She, like Bush, is not expected to be actively supported by the party's right-wing element.

Polls are showing them to be considered serious contenders, suggesting that voters who once may have supported right-wing Republicans are now looking to more moderate candidates.

While some pundits suggest a Dole-Bush ticket could be the combination for victory in 2000, even more believe a Bush-Dole ticket could pose an even stronger challenge to Gore, regardless of who he chooses to be his running mate, unless it is a woman whose political profile is equal to Dole's.

If he is to win the presidency, Gore knows he must continue the policies that worked for Clinton, even in the lowest period of his political life. While the other announced Democratic hopeful, former US Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey, is not expected to seriously threaten Gore's bid for the nomination, there is another man he cannot afford to ignore: Jesse L. Jackson.

The loyal black support that Clinton has enjoyed during his tenure could go to Gore, depending on how well he can work with Jackson, regardless of whether Jackson becomes a candidate himself, or remains an activist during the campaign.

Gore knows that he will need black support to help counter the strong Latino vote Bush is expected to receive if he becomes the GOP nominee. Such support could be decisive in a close election.

The right-wing members of the GOP can thank themselves for giving blacks and Latinos plenty of reasons to vote for a Gore or Bush presidency next year, and against any candidate that espouses ultra-right-wing views.

Thus, if Gore wins the Democratic nomination, and Bush wins the Republican nomination, they might consider a joint statement thanking the ultra-right wing for helping to make it happen.