or Governor George W. Bush, who began his career in politics just six years ago, tonight's presidential debate is arguably his most significant campaign stop to date.
Never before has he been seen by so many, for such an extended period of time. He has debated a Democrat only twice; in the Republican primaries, his debates were broadcast on national television, but he never faced off with his opponents one on one.
And Bush, who sometimes mangles words and phrases, has never been known for his oratorical skills.
In other words, he is clearly the debate underdog - or at least that's what Bush campaign officials hope the viewing audience expects heading into tonight.
Preparation
Despite his aides' insistence that he is the more informal candidate, Bush has been preparing for months, flying US Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire to Texas several times for mock debates. Bush has also studied a briefing book and discussed policy with his staff via e-mail.
Perhaps most important, Bush has arranged his pre-debate schedule today so he has time to take a nap - critical because the 9 p.m. debate coincides with his usual bedtime.
History
Despite expectations to the contrary, Bush was hardly a flop in his first debates, with Governor Ann Richards. Instead, he kept his cool - a trait he carried into the 10 GOP primary debates he participated in this year. Yet Bush did not blow his opponents away, either. He simply performed better than conventional wisdom assumed he would.
Lines of attack
In addition to education, tax cuts, and Social Security, Bush aides say he will promote the ''character issue,'' already a familiar theme in his stump speech. Although it is unlikely he will mention the Clinton impeachment scandal directly, he will almost certainly ask viewers to consider which candidate they can trust, and who can be taken at his word.
Points of vulnerability
If Bush's $1.3 trillion tax cut proposal has raised eyebrows in some Republican circles, it is sure to be easy fodder for Gore, who has accused Bush of favoring the top 1 percent of taxpayers. In fact, Bush is already prepared to hear Gore say that tonight, an aide said yesterday.
He is also vulnerable on his record in Texas, which the Gore campaign likes to depict as zealous on the death penalty and lax on child welfare and education.
Best case
Bush appears easy-going in contrast to an angry and pedantic Gore, rising above the muck with a Reaganesque ''there you go again'' to fend off every attack from his opponent.
Worst case
He utters a ''Bush-ism,'' one of his familiar trips of the tongue, or confuses a significant fact. Bush rarely recovers from such flubs well, often not realizing he has made them.
Where to from here
After a post-debate rally in South Boston and an overnight at the Airport Hilton, Bush plans a four-day tour through swing states.
