LEARWATER, Fla. - If there is any place George W. Bush once felt at home, it is here, home of another Governor Bush, where voters broke the national trend to choose a Bush for president in 1992. Back in March, he declared this ''Bush Country,'' putting Florida ''in the W column,'' as he likes to say.
But just as the nationwide campaign has not gone as smoothly as Bush once hoped, the race in Florida is a struggle now, with polls showing the the governor of Texas's lead erased. And the turnabout, which puts a significant 25 electoral votes up for grabs, is not just a disappointing trend for Bush, who arrived in Florida yesterday. It also is a shock to the people of Florida, Republicans and Democrats alike, who suddenly find themselves in a real battleground state.
Florida is now ground zero in the issues war being waged by Vice President Al Gore, who is playing to seniors concerned about prescription drug costs and powerful teachers unions in the state. His running mate, Joseph I. Lieberman, is treated like a rock star by the senior Jewish population. And either Gore or Lieberman is planning to be in Florida every week until the election, a strategy unthinkable just months ago.
At the same time, Bush is faced with having to really fight in Florida, to the dismay of the state's Republicans and the surprise of some political anaylsts. While the polls are thus far inconclusive, and could change in the coming weeks, almost no one uses the word ''sweep'' anymore to describe how Bush will fare.
''Did I expect Florida to be a battleground state? No,'' said Representative Clay Shaw, chairman of the House Appropriations committee and a Florida Republican. ''But now it has to be a battleground.''
In part, Shaw said, the landscape shifted when Lieberman joined the ticket, enthralling the heavily Jewish areas of the state. He also credited the Democratic National Convention with giving Gore a ''bounce.''
But the convention ended weeks ago, and some political analysts said the numbers reflect a more elaborate situation, as Florida voters, who chose Clinton over Bob Dole in 1996, have picked up on the issues Gore is talking about. James P. Monroe, who teaches political science at the University of Miami, said the problem for Bush is ''how to deal with what would seem to be a set of issues that have come out of nowhere.''
''I am surprised,'' Monroe said. ''I actually thought the state would be, not a runaway, but pretty solidly in Bush's column. It's hard to believe it's as close as it is.''
Bush himself is less willing to describe the race in such stark terms. Bush, on his second trip to Florida in three weeks, said he expected to ''win in the great state of Florida'' in November, dismissing the doubts of some of his supporters and the recent round of polls.
But he defended his younger brother, who is running the Republican campaign in Florida and is continuing, as governor, to run the state. Recently, that dual role has become an issue for Jeb Bush, with some local supporters questioning whether he is focused on the presidential election.
Sensitive to those accusations, George Bush yesterday said: ''Don't blame it on my brother.''
''We're in good shape here in Florida,'' he said, as his brother stood by his side. ''I'm going to carry Florida. I've got real plans for real people.''
That message, which the governor of Texas debuted on Friday and plans to carry through a five-state swing this week, was the focus yesterday, as Bush bypassed his usual rally-style campaign event in favor of a town hall-style meeting at a senior center in Clearwater. In a trip to the Top of the World retirement community - a sprawling residence of 10,000 seniors encompassing three voting precincts - Bush spoke at length about his prescription drug plan for Medicare, describing it as a ''plan that will make the system modern.''
He took questions, holding a 37-minute event similar to the sort favored by Gore. Later in the day, Bush flew to West Palm Beach, where he greeted supporters at the airport, then attended a $500,000 fund-raiser for the Florida Republican Party.
The goal of the trip was simple: To underscore his commitment to overhauling the Medicare system and provide prescription drug coverage to seniors. But the event, set against a backdrop of seniors, was nearly identical to the ones Gore staged following the Democratic National Convention last month, creating a challenge for Bush as he tried to distinguish his policies from those of the vice president.
In particular, Bush sought to offset warnings by Gore that the Republican plan for Medicare would be ''risky.'' In particular, Gore has said that Bush's $198 billion plan, a provision of which allow seniors to choose among health plans, would jeopardize the entire Medicare system.
''You will hear scare tactics ... You can't scare somebody and try to lead. That's short-term politics,'' Bush said.
Yet Bush deployed the tactic himself somewhat, casting Gore's $253 billion plan, which would include a prescription drug benefit as part of Medicare, as a bureaucratic morass that would strangle seniors' ability to select care.
''My opponent's point of view is that in order to have a prescription drug benefit, you'll be thrown into a government-run HMO,'' Bush said. ''You don't have flexibility. That's not fair and that's not right. You ought to have a variety of options.''
The emphasis on health care, a topic Bush once left largely unmentioned, is in itself a sign of how critical Florida has become and why the state appears to be reconsidering Gore, who has talked about it from the start. Indeed, some strategists on both sides say the state is essential to both candidates in order to win. Florida is the fourth-largest electoral state; New York and California, which are leaning heavily Democratic, and Texas, which is all but guaranteed to favor Bush, are larger.
''This is a state the Texas governor thought he was going to win,'' Gore spokesman Chris Lehane said. Now, Lehane said, ''Our prospects are sunny in the Sunshine State.''
