Gephardt won't run in presidential race

By Michael Kranish, Globe Staff, February 3, 1999

WASHINGTON -- House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt has decided not to seek the presidential nomination, becoming the third high-profile Democrat in recent weeks to decide not to run, and providing more room for Senator John F. Kerry to jump in.

Gephardt's decision, confirmed yesterday by three sources, is scheduled to be announced at a 5 p.m meeting today of the House Democratic caucus. The Missourian, facing the prospect of a difficult race against the two announced candidates, Vice President Al Gore and former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey, has told associates he would prefer to focus on regaining a Democratic majority in the House and becoming speaker.

A political analyst, Stuart Rothenberg, said Gephardt's decision has a split impact: It underscores Gore's political strength by diminishing the Democratic field, but could make it easier for someone such as Kerry to make a more a credible bid against Gore.

"The anti-Gore vote won't be as fractured, and the Democratic race will be a referendum on the vice president," Rothenberg said.

Larry Carpman, a former Kerry press secretary who now works at Rasky/Baerlein Group in Boston, suggested that Gephardt's decision could make the race more attractive to Kerry, who is still considering whether to run. "Any time in an election that you can get as close as possible to a one-on-one, versus four or five people on a stage, you are just better off," Carpman said, while stressing that Kerry had not made up his mind.

Gephardt plans to meet with Gore this morning to inform him of the decision.

Gephardt, 58, concluded in recent weeks that he had little chance of beating the vice president but a good chance of becoming House speaker. The drive for Democrats to win control of the House is being headed by Representative Patrick J. Kennedy of Rhode Island, Gephardt's hand-picked choice to run the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

If Gephardt does become speaker after the 2000 elections, Kennedy could gain a top leadership position and solidify his standing as a leader in the Kennedy clan.

A Gephardt associate, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the minority leader went "back and forth" about whether to run for president.

"There was some degree of feeling that he had gotten Democrats to the doorstep" of controlling Congress "and he didn't want to leave them in the lurch," the associate said.

Gephardt ran unsuccessfully for president in 1988. He considered running in 1992, but rejected the idea partly because President Bush looked likely to win reelection. Gephardt's absence provided an opening for the little-known governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton, to emerge from the field and eventually be elected president.

Gephardt, to the delight of the White House, emerged as one of Clinton's strongest defenders during the House impeachment vote, delivering an impassioned speech on behalf of the president.

Gephardt's decision, while expected, sharpens the focus on the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. In recent weeks, Senators Bob Kerrey of Nebraska and Paul Wellstone of Minnesota have dropped out of the running, partly because they anticipated difficulty competing against Gore, who is busily lining up financial and political support. Bradley, the only other announced candidate, so far is running a shoestring operation.

This leaves Kerry as the only Democratic member of Congress who has said he is seriously considering a bid. The Rev. Jesse Jackson also has said he might run again.

Kerry has said he would decide by early February whether to run. But in an interview Monday, Kerry said the Senate impeachment trial has delayed his schedule by several weeks, suggesting that his announcement may not come until the end of this month.

"We are obviously pushed back," Kerry said.

Kerry associates said the decisions by Kerrey, Wellstone, and Gephardt against running are bound to affect the Massachusetts senator's thinking about the race. Even though Kerry would enter as a long shot, a small Democratic field inevitably would lead to intense media focus on the candidates who compete against Gore. Moreover, if Gore's candidacy faltered, Kerry could profit from the small number of other candidates.

John Martilla, a Kerry adviser, said yesterday he doubted the senator would make up his mind based on Gephardt's decision. "It is a personal decision," Martilla said.

"Senator Kerry's decision will rest on a fairly complex equation of personal, political and logistical factors, into which today's news may play some part," said spokesman Jim Jordan. "However, no single external factor or development will, in and of itself, determine his ultimate decision."