Gore, Bush in virtual tie in Reuters poll

By Alan Eisner, Reuters, 09/29/00

WASHINGTON -- Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush were locked in a statistical dead heat in the Nov. 7 presidential race, according to the first Reuters/MSNBC daily tracking poll released on Friday.

The poll, conducted by John Zogby, surveyed 1,213 likely voters between Sept. 26-28. It found the vice president leading the Texas governor by a statistically insignificant single percentage point.

Gore had 44 percent and Bush polled 43 percent. Following them were Green Party candidate Ralph Nader with 3 percent, Libertarian Party hopeful Harry Browne with 2 percent, and the Reform Party's Pat Buchanan with 1 percent. Seven percent were undecided and the margin of error was plus or minus 3 percent.

In the last Reuters poll, released on Sept. 21, Gore led Bush by 4 percentage points.

Reuters and MSNBC will release a new poll every day until the election. The surveys are made up of a rolling daily sample of 400 likely voters each day to create a three-day sample of around 1,200.

The poll made it clear that Gore had lost whatever advantage he had held after last month's Democratic convention, and that the stakes for the first presidential debate next Tuesday could hardly be higher.

"This race is tight in every way. The two candidates are tied among the all important suburban voters," said Zogby.

"The good news for Gore is his solid lead among Catholics, union voters, minorities and liberal voters. At this point, he seems to be squeezing Nader out," he said.

"The good news for Bush is that he has made gains in the $25-$50,000 income bracket and leads among parents, married voters and men. One in five voters overall and 36 percent of independents tell us that they could still change their minds," Zogby added.

Bush led among men by 47-41 percent while Gore led among women by 48-39 percent. Bush led among parents with children at home while Gore led among voters with no children living at home.

Bush was ahead among whites by 10 points while Gore had almost three quarters of the black vote and led among Hispanics by more than two to one.

Regionally, the race was extremely close in the Midwest and in the West. Bush led by six points in the South while Gore led by 11 in the East.

Asked whether they had definitely ruled out voting for either major candidate, 69 percent said they would definitely not support Bush while 72 percent said they had ruled out voting for Gore.

Voters were split over President Clinton's decision to release, at Gore's urging, oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize gasoline and home heating oil prices. Some 47 percent said they agreed with it while 41 percent disagreed.