s he seeks to re-energize his campaign and move out of President Clinton's troublesome shadow, Vice President Al Gore in recent weeks has shed staff, has fired up his rhetoric, has even moved his campaign headquarters to Nashville.
But the ''new Gore'' doesn't seem to have caught on yet among likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, and the Clinton shadow over Gore's candidacy, if anything, has grown and darkened as the president's own popularity has diminished, according to a new Boston Globe poll.
Since Sept. 1, when a Globe poll found that former senator Bill Bradley had pulled even with Gore in New Hampshire, Gore's unwavering support for Clinton during the impeachment imbroglio has diminished his allure among Democrats and independents who say they will vote in the state's first-in-the-nation primary. The falloff is most apparent among women.
Overall, Gore and his surprisingly strong adversary remain statistically deadlocked, although Bradley has turned a 4-point deficit in the earlier poll into a 3-point lead. In the earlier poll, Gore led, 40 percent to 36 percent, with 19 percent undecided. In the new sample, Bradley has a 45 to 42 percent edge, with 9 percent undecided.
Bradley drew particularly well among independents, besting Gore 48 percent to 38 percent. But underscoring the volatility that independents could bring to this race - and to the Republican primary - the poll also found that Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican, finds many admirers among registered independents who now plan to vote in the Democratic contest. Indeed, McCain has a favorable-unfavorable ratio of 2 to 1 in this group, a hint that as the Feb. 1 primary approaches, some may find the GOP primary a more attractive option.
As the two Democrats prepare for their first face-to-face meeting in New Hampshire Wednesday, the new poll numbers represent a statistical standoff, but with both candidates popular enough that the lead could see-saw in the next three months. The poll was conducted for the Globe by KRC Communications Research. It has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
Yet despite the deadlock, underlying sentiment among the 400 Democrats and independents, interviewed by telephone over three nights last week, has shifted in small but detectable ways that contain little solace for a vice president who could have expected an easy path to nomination as recently as this summer.
For instance, among the most attentive voters in the sample - those who could name both candidates without prompting - Bradley's edge over Gore is larger, at 48 percent to 40 percent. And since the last poll, Gore's 10-point edge among Democrats and women has evaporated, while Bradley has lost some of the commanding edge he had held among independents.
What's more, the likely primary voters seemed unmoved by Gore's aggressive new posture, his criticisms of Bradley and the endorsement he won from the AFL-CIO - all of which have drawn plaudits from party professionals. But among those polled, the union endorsement was a wash, as has been Gore's attack on Bradley for supporting GOP budget cuts in 1981. Indeed, as many of the voters approved of those long-ago cuts as opposed them, the poll found.
''Even though the vice president has taken symbolic steps, like moving his headquarters out of Washington and declaring himself the underdog, this poll shows his candidacy remains in trouble in New Hampshire,'' said Gerry Chervinsky, KRC's president.
Moreover, in a dynamic reminiscent of the 1984 primary, the poll suggests that Granite State primary voters are more than twice as likely to be worried about endorsements from interest groups as they are to be impressed by them. That year, Senator Gary Hart upset Vice President Walter F. Mondale in New Hampshire, after hammering home his theme that Mondale was a captive of Democratic special interest groups.
This time, when voters were asked in general about how they viewed candidates who seek and win endorsements from party leaders and major interest groups, just 17 percent said they were more likely to support such a candidate. But 37 percent said those allegiances would concern them that the candidate was too receptive to those interest groups.
That pattern is a reminder of the contrary nature of the state's primary voters; in 1984, after all, it was those very same party interest groups that helped Mondale regain his footing and eventually win the nomination. Still, Granite State pre-primary sentiment is closely watched for a number of reasons: The state holds the first primary, so the winner most often gets a momentum boost going into the more populous primary states that follow. And candidates log so much time in the state that a challenger's upward movement - like Bradley achieving parity with Gore - is often first detected in New Hampshire.
Perhaps most worrisome for Gore in the new Globe poll is the so-called ''Clinton fatigue'' factor, the extent to which Gore's ties to a scandal-besmirched White House may hurt him when voters consider who should occupy the Oval Office in 2001.
As voters focus on the coming election, and as both candidates increase the time they spend in New Hampshire, just 21 percent of the voters now say that Gore's support for Clinton during the impeachment process makes them more likely to vote for him. In late August, 29 percent expressed that view. Back then, just 21 percent said Gore's stance made them less likely to support him. That number is now up markedly, to 34 percent who say Gore's support for Clinton makes them less likely to support the vice president.
In the new poll, 42 percent said the issue will have no impact on their choice in the primary, down from 50 percent in late August.
Driving that change has been a clear turnabout in the views of women. In late August, women, by better than 2 to 1, said Gore's support for the president made them more likely to vote for him than not. But now, just 22 percent of women said they are more likely to support Gore because of the issue, while 36 percent said they are less likely to support him.
Hand-in-hand with these results has been a sharp dropoff in Clinton's personal popularity in New Hampshire, where his favorable ratings, as in Massachusetts, have long been much higher than in most other parts of the country. In late August, likely Democratic primary voters expressed favorable views of Clinton by almost 3 to 1. Among women, it was about 4 to 1.
Now, however, only 42 percent of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable view of Clinton, while 35 percent have an unfavorable view. In late August, the figure was 71 percent favorable, and 24 percent unfavorable. Although Clinton's positive rating has fallen way off, most of the loss has been to the ''no opinion'' category. Now, with Clinton telegraphing the end of his presidency, 22 percent say they have no opinion of him - a number that Chervinsky said is more likely to signal growing voter doubts about what to think of Clinton and his legacy than
an authentic neutrality.
Chervinsky also said it seems apparent that Clinton's drop in popularity has created some political drag for his vice president.
''It appears that the more people pay attention to the vice president's candidacy, the more his ties to Clinton hurt him,'' Chervinsky said.
