ON POLITICS

Gore May Want A New Strategy

By Frank Phillips, Globe Staff, June 30, 1999

For Bill Clinton and Al Gore, Massachusetts has been the most politically fertile region in the country. The two have raised more money per capita here than in any other state and rolled up some of the largest victory margins.

But for Gore, those good feelings seem to be sliding away -- seriously sliding away.

A new survey taken by the University of Massachusetts shows former US senator Bill Bradley has pulled even with Gore in a presidential primary contest in the Bay State.

The poll gives Gore 37.9 percent and Bradley 34.6 percent, with 10.3 percent undecided, among the 364 Democrats and Independents surveyed June 23-28. The margin of error in the sub-sample is plus or minus 6 percent.

That's stunning news for Gore, who only two months ago led Bradley in a similar UMass poll by 14 percent.

What may be just as unsettling for Gore is that his slip comes as Clinton's standing among Bay State voters has jumped 10 percentage points since the Kosovo victory.

Lou DiNatale, senior fellow at the university's McCormack Institute, which designs the poll, said Gore seems to be in a "free fall" and is getting no benefit from the Clinton foreign policy success. He said the results raise questions about the vice president's strategy of separating himself from Clinton.

"This is particularly bad news because it comes on the heels of an upswing in Clinton's standing," DiNatale said.

DiNatale said the good news for Gore is that the vice president's slide is coming so early in the campaign. "This is the ideal time for Gore to bottom out," he said. "It is early and there is plenty of time for him to recover."

Still, how does this all jibe with the findings of recent national polls that show Gore holding a strong lead among Democrats. A recent CNN/Time magazine poll -- taken at almost the same time as the UMass survey -- gave him a 3-to-1 ratio over Bradley, or 64 percent to 28 percent.

DiNatale said his survey of Massachusetts voters may, in fact, have picked up an early trend that spells trouble for the vice president and his strategy to distance himself from Clinton.

"One of the fundamental assumptions of the Gore campaign is that if he separates himself from Clinton, he should gain in the polls," DiNatale said. "But, with Massachusetts so pro-Clinton there may be a downside to the strategy that the Gore campaign has not fully thought out."

But Bradley's new strength in Massachusetts is not only reflected in his trial heat with Gore. He also does better than Gore in a race among general voters against Texas Governor George W. Bush, the Republican front-runner.

According to the poll, Bush would beat Gore in Massachusetts by 43.4 percent to 38.3 percent if the election were held now -- a significant victory margin for any Republican in a heavily Democratic state. Bradley runs about even with Bush, getting 37.8 percent to Bush's 36.6 percent. In April, Bush led Bradley 40 percent to 37 percent.

The poll of 400 voters has a 5 percent margin of error.

Bush's gain on Gore can be explained by the launching of his campaign several weeks ago. With campaign stops in New Hampshire and Boston, Massachusetts voters were flooded with positive images of the Texas Republican.

But what is impressive about Bradley's trial heat with Bush is that he turned around the numbers in the face of the Texan's high-profile events.

Another indication that Bradley is gaining strength in Massachusetts is that the former senator also has increased his April lead over another GOP candidate, Elizabeth Dole. He received 42.8 percent to Dole's 26.5 percent, with 21.3 percent undecided. Two months ago, he led Dole by only 3 percentage points.

Again, that is not good news for the vice president. The survey shows Dole does better against Gore, getting 31.3 percent to his 44.6 percent, with 13.1 percent undecided.

What is so unsettling for Gore is that Massachusetts should be part of his strongest base. For example, Clinton got a 65.6 percent favorable job rating, up from 57 percent in April. Another 67.3 percent approved of his handling of the Yugoslavian conflict.

Has Gore made a strategic mistake that will play out nationally for him? Given Clinton's uncanny ability to transform a crisis into higher poll numbers, Gore and his strategists may want to take a closer look at what is happening in a state where the Clinton/Gore team has for so long prospered.