FTER A YEAR in which he paid too much attention to people who told him to mind his manners and play it close to the vest, Al Gore has less than two weeks to reclaim an election he should have won easily.
His twin moorings of peace and prosperity were shaken by the uprising in the Middle East and some burps on Wall Street, and ''personality'' became the dividing line for the electorate that, while generally prosperous, is still grumpy and dissatisfied.
Demonstrably brighter and more experienced than Governor George W. Bush, Gore has seemed baffled by his inability to persuade people he'd be a better steward of the economy and foreign policy.
Gore now depends on a surge of Democratic voter turnout to repel a Republican charge that was better financed, better organized, better run, and made shrewder use of the news media to define and demonize the vice president.
Gore's base was easy to define on paper as recently as Labor Day: blacks, Greens, women, the over-65 crowd, and union households. He's still got the blacks. But so many Greens have bolted for Ralph Nader that Gore can lose Washington state and Oregon to Bush, with Nader nudging up to 8 percent out there.
Nader could very well cost Gore those states and maybe a couple of more, thereby putting two Texas oilmen (OK, Dick Cheney is really from Wyoming) in charge of drilling and filling - drilling oil wells and filling Republican pockets with oil dough.
Bush has always had the lead among white males, especially white Southern males, who love guns, hate taxes, and don't mind if abortion is outlawed. The Democrats' traditional gender gap advantage with women voters has been knocked askew by the Clinton factor.
Married women with children in two-adult family units apparently blame Gore for Monica Lewinsky. The lure of easy money to two-income households - even working-class women who would get mere scraps from the Bush tax cut giveaway - makes them forget ''Read my lips: No new taxes,'' a broken promise from another Bush campaign.
Gore made a series of tactical decisions before the first debate. Apparently intimidated by the Bush campaign's clever attempt to portray him as Al the bully, Gore shelved the sort of personal attack that Bush's record and lack of qualifications invited. Nor did he make abortion and Bush's avowed intention to name Supreme Court justices like Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas a top priority.
He decided to shelve Clinton - the single most potent weapon in the Democratic Party's armory. By deliberately spiking the biggest gun on his side, Gore gambled that he and Joe Lieberman could energize the Democratic base on their own.
And finally, by campaigning as ''my own man,'' Gore elected not to make the Republican congressional record of partisanship, government shutdowns, and impeachment an issue. When does Gore mention Ken Starr? Impeachment? Newt Gingrich? Never.
And that's apparently because he doesn't want to remind anyone of Clinton, Monica, and the president's veracity problems. But if Gore blows this thing, his decisions made this fall will have cost the Democrats not only the White House but the chance to take back the House of Representatives as well.
Gore still leads by 2-1 among members of union households. And the fact that UAW members get election day off to work close states like Michigan may still tip the Electoral College tally in key places to the Democrats. Gore pulled within 1 percent of Bush overall in the latest Washington Post daily tracking poll. But Nader's 4 percent nationally comes right out of Gore's potential vote.
The polls show how tight it is. ABC's has it Bush 47, Gore 47, Nader 3. The Christian Science Monitor has it Bush 44, Gore 42, Nader 5. CNN/USA Today's is Bush 43, Gore 41, Nader 8, Pat Buchanan 2. The ICR numbers: Bush 43, Gore 41, Nader 8, Buchanan 2. Voter.com Battleground: Bush 46, Gore 38, Nader 5.
But in the double-handful of states where the outcome will be decided - most of the states with Republican governors and strong GOP political organizations and media support - the Democrats will have to prevail in hand-to-hand combat to eke out victory.
If I'm Al Gore, I toss caution to the winds, bring Bill Clinton into every battleground state's big city, and energize my base by declaring starkly what a Bush victory could mean to Democratic party goals.
To have let Bush get away with pious pronouncements that he will bring back civility and bipartisanship to the polluted swamp of Washington was a huge mistake on Gore's part. He's down to the street fighting now. Gore's been afraid all year to get rough on Boy George.
Gore claims that he's a fighter. It's time to show us, not tell us. And regardless of the risk of bringing Clinton to the fore, this election will not be won with Gore on his own; it's time for Battlin' Bill to come to the fray.
David Nyhan'se-mail address is nyhan@globe.com.
