ice President Al Gore's decision to opt for a more relaxed approach with voters and a more combative stance against former Senator Bill Bradley appears to have arrested his slide in New Hampshire, according to a new Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll of the state's likely Democratic primary voters.
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POLL TRACKER
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Gore stops N.H. slide
If the Democratic primary for president were being held tomorrow, for whom would you vote?
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Bill Bradley
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43%
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Al Gore
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43%
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Other
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1%
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Don't know
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13%
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From a Boston Globe/WBZ-TV poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted Dec. 6-7. Margin of error: +/- 5%.
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After Bradley's unexpected success in leveling the contest in the state that will hold the critical first presidential primary, Gore has regained his footing, especially among registered Democrats. And voter preference, which appeared to be inching toward Bradley over the fall, has evened out.
In a sign of good news for Gore, core Democratic voters who had begun to drift away from him while his campaign was in a state of public disarray in September and October appear to be coming back. On the other hand, despite Gore's more aggressive campaigning and pointed criticisms of Bradley, the former New Jersey senator has continued to become better-known and more popular among Granite state voters.
In the poll of 400 Democrats and independents who say they plan to vote in the Feb. 1 primary, 43 percent said they would vote for Gore and 43 percent for Bradley if the primary were held now. Thirteen percent said they are undecided.
But even as the standing of the Democratic candidates remains essentially unchanged - a Globe/WBZ-TV poll in late October had the two in a statistical tie - the poll made it clear how much the race could change between now and the primary. Just 31 percent of those who expressed a candidate preference said their choice was definite. And among independent voters, 37 percent said they still might switch over and vote in the Republican primary instead. That could be a critical factor, as Bradley remains immensely popular among independents, who are free to vote in either party's primary.
The poll, which was conducted on Monday and Tuesday evenings by KRC Communications Research, has a potential margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points for the whole sample. For subsamples within the poll, the potential margin of error is greater.
The poll underscores the volatility among primary voters, but especially among independents, whose ranks have swollen in New Hampshire. Since August, polls by the Globe have shown that independents, no matter which primary they say they plan to vote in, have high opinions of Bradley and Republican Senator John McCain.
If the poll suggests Gore has arrested a modest slide, it contains heartening news for Bradley as well: Despite Gore's strong criticism of him, Bradley's favorable ratings among likely voters have only increased as he becomes better known. Put another way, Gore's continual attacks on Bradley's policy notions may have helped the vice president. But as Gore has placed a spotlight on his opponent, the result seems to have increased Bradley's recognition - and his popularity, too.
And even as registered Democrats in the sample seem to prefer Gore, by 50 to 37 percent, Bradley has an even stronger lead among independents, who prefer him to the vice president by 58 to 26 percent. And among those voters who said they are paying a lot of attention to the contest, Bradley leads by 56 to 33 percent.
The latest poll, the third measurement of the Democratic contest done for the Globe and WBZ-TV since August, shows that the race remains a statistical dead heat.
At the end of August, Gore held a lead of just 40 to 36 percent - the first poll to show that the vice president faced a formidable challenge in the state. In the second poll in mid-October, Bradley had forged a small lead, 45 to 42 percent.
According to the poll, Gore's association with President Clinton remains a political ball and chain. Indeed, Gore goes out of his way to avoid mentioning Clinton while campaigning.
Clinton's job performance ratings remain very high among Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, where the economy is extraordinarily robust. But personally, Clinton's popularity ratings are anemic, well below the ratings of both of the Democrats who want to succeed him.
When Bradley's supporters are asked why they do not support Gore, fully 25 percent cite his ties to Clinton. Another 16 percent say they do not like Gore's image - a hint that the subordinate office Gore holds has its own downside with voters.
Because the candidates are campaigning constantly in the state, are running advertising spots, and the contest receives substantial media attention, early poll results in New Hampshire remain a potential barometer for later national sentiment. And a victory in New Hampshire, especially for an insurgent candidate, often provides momentum.
In national polls, Gore still retains a substantial lead - 56 to 34 percent in a CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll last month, for instance. But Bradley is less well-known nationally. In New Hampshire, 81 percent of the likely primary voters can now name Bradley as a candidate without prompting, compared to 88 percent for the vice president.
Both candidates are highly popular with Granite State voters, suggesting that either one could draw support from the other. Fully 75 percent of the likely primary voters have a favorable view of Gore, up from 57 percent in October. Seventeen percent have a negative view of Gore.
Bradley, despite the rhetorical pounding meted out by Gore, is viewed favorably by 72 percent of voters, and unfavorably by just 10 percent. Another 16 percent of the voters could not rate Bradley because they do not yet know enough about him.
