t this stage of the presidential campaign, everything seems to be going Texas Governor George W. Bush's way, and nothing seems to be going right for Vice President Al Gore.
But while it's too early to stick a fork into Gore and say he's done, it may be time for him to find out why Bush is hot and he's not.
It is early in the campaign season, but not so early that Gore can afford to let things slide. The impressions candidates make in the spring and summer stay with voters in the fall. Usually, voters are more attracted to candidates who are closer to, or move to, the political center on most issues, as did President Clinton during his last election campaign.
So far, it appears that Bush has been more successful than Gore in in making this shift to center.
Last week, for example, Bush made a decision that helped him appear the ''compassionate conservative'' he has long claimed to be (although he certainly did not resemble one during his battles with Arizona Senator John R. McCain, when both men staked out conservative ground.)
Bush on Thursday suspended a Death Row inmate's execution for 30 days so DNA tests can be conducted to prove whether he raped and killed his 12-year-old stepdaughter. If DNA proves that Ricky Nolen McGinn is not guilty, he will not qualify for the death penalty in Texas.
It was Bush's first reprieve in a capital case, and comes after approving 131 executions as governor. Still, it helps to soften his image, at least temporarily. And it echoes the new concerns about use, and misuse, of the death penalty - concerns that prompted Ilinois Governor George Ryan in January to impose a moratorium on executions in his state.
Bush, according to reports, granted McGinn's reprieve less than a half hour before the scheduled execution. With that last- minute decision, Bush showed he can make the right move when the opportunity presents itself.
On the other hand, Gore hurt his campaign when he tried to take advantage of the Elian Gonzalez saga by publicly siding with the Cuban-American families who wanted to keep the boy in Miami, with relatives, rather than return him to his father in Cuba. Gore won few, if any, converts among the Cuban-American families with what critics called his ''pandering'' to a select if powerful group of Florida voters, and he angered most of his African-American and other Democratic supporters.
Gore is still recovering from the political damage done when he declared that a family court in Florida should decide Elian's fate. Meanwhile, Bush - whose conservative credentials allowed a similar stand - emerged unscathed.
While Bush himself could be accused of pandering to moderate voters with this Death Row reprieve, very few Republicans, or even Democrats, will likely criticize him for giving a man a last chance to prove his innocence.
Adding to Gore's woes with his constituency is his support of the bill that would give Permanent Normal Trade Relations status to China over strong objections by labor unions, who predict the measure will cost workers' jobs. After passing the House of Representatives two weeks ago, the bill is expected to be easily passed in the Senate in the coming weeks.
There are other issues, such as health care, Social Security, and education, as well as other labor issues that could bring Democrats, and even independent voters, back to Gore's candidacy. But he will have a hard time overcoming the damage done by the Elian issue, because it gave some credence to critics' argument that Gore will do or say virtually anything to get elected. That goes right to the core of questions about Gore's character.
With the federal court's ruling in Atlanta last week that Elian would not be granted asylum to stay in the United States, and with some court-watchers predicting that no other court, not even the US Supreme Court, will overturn the lower court's decision, it may be wise for Gore to turn matters around on the Elian issue.
One way would be for Gore to have, as Atlanta-based political pollster Harry Ross suggested, a summit meeting. The meeting would include key Democrats, including African-Americans, Hispanics, and liberals who would discuss their feelings over Gore's Elian opinion and provide a rationale to put the issue behind them.
After all, Democrats want to get Gore elected in November. If he stumbles along the way, they must pick him up, dust him off, and get him moving forward again - even if he is headed toward the political center. As recent history has shown, the presidential candidate who gets to the center first, and holds it right up to election day, has a good chance of winning.
If Gore is to get to the political center before Bush, he has to do less stumbling and more running - with clear vision and a purpose. And he had best begin now.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
