Gore's oil move

Boston Globe editorial, 09/22/00

l Gore performed a double service yesterday in advocating use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize oil prices. Just by making the suggestion, he may have cooled some price fevers. He has also made energy, and especially petroleum, an issue in the presidential campaign - an area of much room for argument with George W. Bush.

The specifics of Gore's proposal are open to challenge. In suggesting that blocks of 5 million barrels be released from the 570-million-barrel reserve to oil companies - to be repaid later - he has telegraphed specific information to producers and holders of inventories. It would be sounder, tactically, to indicate that the reserve was available but not predetermine amounts, in order to keep an element of uncertainty in the minds of producers.

Bush's snap criticism, that producers would cut output to match the flow from the reserve, is only partly reasonable. Some producers are turning out oil nearly at capacity already because they need the revenue. Most - Great Britain, Norway, Mexico, Venezuela, Canada, Saudi Arabia, to name the biggest examples - have no reason to inflict economic harm on their customer countries since recessions would injure their own long-term interests. Iraq might play a harmful role, but the Saudis have the capacity to offset cutbacks there.

Holders of inventory, on the other hand, might try to avoid the costs associated with storage and financing by relying on the US reserve and similar reserves in other countries to meet their peak-demand needs. Being vague about amounts to be released from the reserve - as central banks are vague in talking about intervention in currency markets - would tend to keep private inventories at higher levels.

In any case, Gore's suggestion has now established some uncertainty. It also may encourage other nations to put into play an additional 500 million barrels of their reserves. Even that potential would be useful.

The industry and Governor Bush have been critical of using the reserve to influence prices, arguing that free markets are better than government intervention. That might be the case if markets were genuinely free, but they are not. OPEC has been successful for two years in restraining output in order to increase prices and has been slow in increasing production to offset price hikes that even some of its members regard as excessive.

The real problem is less one of production than of inventories, which look inadequate for the coming winter season. Gore has put that issue on the table. He and Bush should debate the question so that voters can understand where each candidate stands and what he represents.