Gore's real problem? The enthusiasm gap

By Will Lester, Associated Press, 10/23/00

WASHINGTON -- Enthusiasm for Al Gore is significantly lower among his supporters two weeks before the election than the zeal for George W. Bush among his backers, new polls suggest.

Bush has enjoyed higher levels of enthusiasm among his base supporters for months as Republicans hungry to regain the White House united behind the Texas governor. Democrat Gore had closed the enthusiasm gap after a successful Democratic convention.

But the gap reappeared soon after the first presidential debate, when Gore was criticized for his sighing, interruptions and misstatements. He still has an advantage on top issues and experience, but lost ground on several personal measures -- notably on trust and speaking his mind.

"It was apparent before the Democratic convention," said Andrew Kohut who noticed the trend in a Pew Research Center poll. "It resurfaced after the first debate and it appears to have continued."

The difference in enthusiasm also showed up in polls this week by ABC News and CBS-New York Times.

Bush got strong support from 84 percent of his backers in the ABC News poll while 76 percent of Gore backers strongly supported him.

In the CBS-New York Times poll, 54 percent of Bush supporters were enthusiastic, with 61 percent of conservatives saying that. Among Gore supporters, 39 percent were enthusiastic with just 41 percent of liberals saying they were enthusiastic about him.

Gore also is getting pressure from Green Party candidate Ralph Nader on the left, who is taking anywhere from 4 percent to 8 percent in crucial states like Michigan, California and Minnesota.

Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said Democrats traditionally get excited about a campaign later than Republicans.

"Democrats tend to be busy dealing with the travails of everyday life," he said, noting they are busy trying to earn a living. "We typically see Democrats getting pretty excited late in the game, in the last four or five days in the race."

Gore is more popular among black voters than he was a year ago, according to a survey by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. He had an 86 percent favorable rating in the survey, compared with 69 percent a year ago.

Bush is more unpopular with blacks, 55 percent of whom view him unfavorably, compared with 48 percent who felt that way about Bob Dole in 1996. The Joint Center poll of 1,608 people, about half of them black, was taken Sept. 15 to Oct. 9 has an error margin of 3.5 percentage points.

Vice President Gore is almost as popular with black voters as President Clinton, who had a 91 percent favorable rating, said David Bositis, a senior researcher at the Joint Center.

"Clinton's favorables and his job approval are stratospheric," said Bositis. "Gore's favorables are almost as good as Clinton's -- substantially higher than a year ago."

The drop in enthusiasm overall and the need to rally the Democratic base for Gore was on the minds of Democrats this week.

"All of us in Democratic politics are focused on energizing and turning out the base," said Democratic pollster Dane Strother. "Bill Clinton could be helpful in a lot of ways. He could get out to California immediately and save the state, allow his voice to be used in automated calls to key groups.

"Polls have closed in California in a big way," he said. "Without California, you have nothing."

The idea of calling on Clinton to rally Gore's base was echoed by two Democratic senators who held a conference call on behalf of Gore's campaign to question Bush's readiness for the job.

"I'd have him with me everywhere I go," said Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden, noting Clinton's popularity among blacks, organized labor and Hispanics. "I would have Clinton in every major battleground state telling voters, 'Look what we did for you, look what we're going to be able to do."

He said Clinton "better than anybody in American politics" can make that case to voters.

The Gore campaign has kept Clinton at a distance, wary of the effect he might have on swing voters still upset over the Monica Lewinsky scandal and resulting impeachment trial.

Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska said Gore "has done a good job separating himself from Clinton." He said Gore should avoid violating his principles, but "do what you have to do to win."