Gore surges to lead in N.H. polls

By Holly Ramer, Associated Press, 01/24/00

CONCORD, N.H. -- Al Gore has regained his lead over Bill Bradley in New Hampshire, their next proving ground after Iowa's leadoff caucuses, according to a poll released Monday.

A second poll Monday gave Gore only an apparent lead in New Hampshire.

Gore's margin was 12 points in the first poll -- enough to be called a lead, even considering the margin of error -- and 9 points in the other, an apparent lead because of the margin of error.

In the last several days, Gore had a slight lead in four other New Hampshire polls and was statistically tied with Bradley in a fifth.

Robin Marra, director of the Franklin Pierce College WNDS-TV poll, said Bradley's hurdles are twofold as the candidates return to New Hampshire on Tuesday.

"What is especially significant is the nearly 20 percentage point lead Gore has among self-identified Democrats, especially when paired with what seems to be a trend of independents moving to the GOP primary," he said.

Gore had a sizable lead among self-described Democrats, 56 percent to Bradley's 37 percent, while Bradley led 51 percent to 41 percent among self-described independent voters.

However, 52 percent of all independents surveyed said they plan to vote in the Republican primary. Thirty-four percent said they intend to vote in the Democratic primary; 13 percent were undecided.

New Hampshire election laws allow independent, or undeclared, voters to vote in either party's primary.

A WMUR-TV tracking poll by the University of New Hampshire gave Gore a 9-point edge over Bradley, 50 percent to 41 percent.

That poll said Bradley's earlier lead over Gore among independents has evaporated. Forty-eight percent of independents favored Bradley to 45 percent for Gore, essentially a tie.

In the Republican race, Arizona Sen. John McCain was in a dead heat with Texas Gov. George W. Bush -- 38 percent to 37 percent, respectively -- in the WMUR poll. McCain led Bush 40 percent to 30 percent in the Franklin Pierce WNDS poll.

McCain and Bush have been tied or trading a slight edge back and forth in several recent polls.

Among the other Republican candidates, Steve Forbes had 12 percent in both polls, Alan Keyes had 8 percent in both, and Gary Bauer and Orrin Hatch had 1 or 2 percent apiece. The rest were undecided.

Independents favored McCain by more than two-to-one in both polls. Bush had an apparent lead among registered Republicans in the WMUR poll while the WNDS poll had the two about even.

"I think McCain could better withstand independents defecting to the Democratic primary than Bradley could afford them going to the GOP primary," Marra said.

The most recent Franklin Pierce poll, released Dec. 10, showed Bradley slightly ahead of Gore and McCain with a larger lead over Bush.

The margin of error for the Franklin Pierce College WNDS poll was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

In the WMUR poll, the error margin was plus or minus 5 percentage points for GOP results, and 6 percentage points for Democratic results.