HOENIX - The winter has been so dry here that strong winds over the weekend blew up a blinding dust storm, causing traffic accidents and veiling this Valley of the Sun in a brown haze. In local politics, there's also turbulence in the air, and the dust may not settle until well after today's GOP presidential primary.
John McCain, Arizona's three-term US senator, is the heavy favorite to beat his rival, Texas Governor George W. Bush, in the primary. But if it is not a romp, it will be because Jane Hull, the state's Republican governor, has led a drive to embarrass McCain on his home turf.
''As a governor, you quickly learn that the buck stops with you. I admire what George Bush has done in Texas, and for that reason I am supporting him,'' Hull said during a news conference at the state Capitol yesterday.
Hull said she did not expect Bush to beat McCain, but anything short of a 30-point advantage for the senator would be unimpressive and not helpful, she predicted, particularly if McCain also loses today's important Michigan primary on the heels of a bitter defeat in South Carolina.
''John McCain and I have a healthy respect for each other,'' Hull continued, though it is well-known here that she thinks he has treated her rudely and dismissively. Hull said she hoped she wasn't ''being Pollyanna-ish'' to believe there was no political risk in endorsing Bush and crossing the state's senior senator.
A few miles away and five stories up in a sleek office building, Hull's son, Mike, is managing Bush's Arizona campaign. He oversees phone banks, neighborhood canvassing, and a television-advertising blitz that started in December. Bush said he intends to spend $2 million here, a hefty sum to win 30 delegates in an opponent's home state.
''Bush has spent a fortune, and his goal is to keep John's margin of victory down,'' said US Representative John Shadegg, a Phoenix Republican who is backing McCain and predicts he will win by a ''double-digit margin.''
Recent polls indicate that Shadegg is right and Bush's aggressive campaign here has not entirely paid off. According to a survey conducted by the Arizona Republic newspaper last week, McCain leads Bush, 52 percent to 29 percent, among registered Republicans. Only Republicans and Libertarians can vote in today's primary. McCain's lead in last week's Grand Canyon State poll was even wider, 60 percent to 24 percent.
McCain's effort here is more modest than Bush's. Headquartered in an office storefront not far from the candidate's north Phoenix home, the campaign is relying on volunteers, a single radio ad, and the maverick senator's history of popularity among voters, if not his fellow GOP officeholders.
Wes Gullett, McCain's longtime political operative in Arizona, expects the campaign here to cost $200,000, but it will not respond to what he says is a barrage of negative attacks from Bush's backers in the state.
''They have called John McCain a liberal, a hypocrite, everything but FDR,'' Gullett said. ''The governor has called John's temper into question and said less than positive things about him. It's been very disappointing.''
If early voting is any guide, Republicans could come out in record numbers today. In Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, 26,000 absentee ballots had been cast by the end of last week, up from 16,000 returned in 1996. About 1 million Republicans are registered in Arizona, and both the Bush and McCain campaigns believe as many as 40 percent of them will vote.
David Hardt of Phoenix expects to be one of them, though yesterday he still hadn't decided whom to support. A Navy veteran of Desert Storm, he likes McCain because he believes the president should have a military record. An avid gun-rights advocate who carries a concealed weapon, Hardt said Bush would be a stronger opponent of gun control.
''In the morning, it's Bush, by the night, it's McCain,'' Hardt laughed. ''I need to make up my mind.''
