EW YORK - The Legacy.
That's the big theme this opening night of the Democratic National Convention - not just a fond look back at Bill Clinton's eight years as president, but also a longing look ahead at Hillary Rodham Clinton's possible six years or more as senator.
At the festivities' outset, Hillary is being presented as no less a star than Bill, Al, or Joe. She headed a star-studded, soft-money-raising concert on Saturday, another fund-raiser at Sony Studios last night, and tonight - the capper - she will speak from the podium for 15 minutes in prime time.
Mrs. Clinton's supporters hope that all these events will boost her own political prospects - and perpetuate the Clinton name as a force in American politics.
Certainly, she could use a boost.
After more than a year of constant campaigning, Mrs. Clinton, one of the most famous women in the world, is barely holding her own against her opponent, Representative Rick Lazio, who was unknown outside Long Island a few months ago and who, even now, casts only the vaguest impression.
Of two statewide polls released last week, one puts her ahead by two points and the other puts him ahead by seven. Both results fall within the statistical margins of error.
The poll in which she trails, issued by John Zogby, shows her support slipping in most demographic categories - upstate and suburbs; among the middle-aged and seniors; the middle-income and poor; white people, men, even union members.
In the survey that puts her in the lead, by the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute, she hasn't lost ground, but neither has she gained any.
Most political analysts agree that she is doing just about everything she can - campaigning nearly every day, touching base in every one of New York's 62 counties, spending extensive time upstate, returning to her safety zones in the big cities now and then to keep her base fired up.
Her speeches have become less mannered. Huge crowds greet her everywhere, most of them enthusiastically. She has made the obligatory late-night talk show appearances - with David Letterman and, just last Friday, Jay Leno - and come off relaxed and even funny.
Still, her polling numbers haven't budged. At no point has a poll shown her support rising above 50 percent - not even when Rudolph W. Giuliani, the formidable mayor of New York City, dropped out of the race and the obscure Lazio took his place.
The final Clinton vs. Giuliani poll showed the two tied, at 45-45. The first Clinton vs. Lazio poll put her ahead, 47-32. In other words, even then, her numbers hardly rose a blip; only the undecideds surged. Then, after a week - enough time for people to get an initial impression of Lazio - the numbers went back to where they were.
The underlying fact seems to be this: Many people like Mrs. Clinton a lot, many can't stand her, and the electorate is pretty evenly divided between these two groups.
''This race is Hillary vs. Hillary,'' Zogby said over the weekend. ''Her opponent could be - well, not X, but X with a face, and the numbers would be the same.''
Her supporters hope that tonight's speech will highlight two of Mrs. Clinton's strongest points - her stature in the Democratic Party and her identification as an advocate of its major social and economic causes.
''She is clearly a big deal at this convention, while Lazio was a little man who wasn't even officially at the Republican convention,'' said Maurice Carroll, head of the Quinnipiac poll. ''This is a plus for her.''
But she has to play the scene carefully. Many of Mrs. Clinton's critics suspect she is using the Senate race as a steppingstone to regain the White House in her own name. She has laughingly denied this accusation. Still, she must know that she needs to come off as a leader, but not as The Leader.
If her recent campaign speeches are any indication, her address tonight will play up the differences between Democrats and Republicans generally.
From the beginning, her campaigners have known that she could win if the election were decided on the issues - and that she could lose if it came down to personalities.
The majority of New York voters, though more conservative than several years ago, are still Democratic, by a 5-3 ratio. President Clinton won every county in New York in the 1996 election. On the high-profile issues - education, health care, gun control, abortion - most state voters are closer to the Democrats.
This is why Lazio has tried to make the race about Mrs. Clinton - and why, tonight, Mrs. Clinton will take a chunk of free TV time to make it about the issues.
