Impeachment acquittal breaks both ways for Gore prospects

By Michael Kranish, Globe Staff, February 14, 1999

WASHINGTON -- The impeachment saga of President Clinton spawned what would call political paradox: The deeper the trouble Clinton found himself in the past 13 months, the more Democratic party loyalists rallied around the White House -- and especially Vice President Al Gore.

But now that the trial is over and Clinton's tenure presumably secure, the after-effects on Gore's presidential ambitions remain an open issue.

Gore could benefit if he is seen as heir to the positive aspects of the Clinton Administration without the personal negatives. But the fear among some Gore allies is the vice president could be hurt if a scandal-weary public decides it is time for a fresh team at the White House.

Some potential Democratic presidential candidates have concluded Gore already has gotten the benefit of the rosy scenario, with prospects such as Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska and House minority leader Richard Gephardt of Missouri choosing not to run. But if Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts joins former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey as a candidate, it may well be because of the belief that the public wants someone without such strong ties to Clinton.

The impeachment trial, according to Kerry press secretary Jim Jordan, "has perversely galvanized support for the Democratic Party and by extension, the White House. It has forced all Democrats into a posture where they are almost forced to defend the party and the White House."

But, Jordan, who was the spokesman for Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee during the impeachment inquiry, added, "I don't think it has increased support for Gore per se." The question, he said, is "whether or not the sins of Clinton are visited on Al Gore."

Kerry said there are as many theories as senators when it comes to assessing how the trial will affect Gore. But Kerry said that has nothing to do with his decision whether to run. "I haven't been analyzing this in that context," Kerry said.

Gore, meanwhile, has launched an aggressive strategy to put himself at the forefront of both the administration and the race for the Democratic nomination. In the past week, Gore led the way on policy announcements, including those dealing with an anti-drug strategy and pension benefits. This week, Gore heads to South Africa and then to Miami to meet with the AFL-CIO, two trips that Gore aides hope will help the vice president with the key constituencies of blacks and labor union members.

Gore, meanwhile, has launched a campaign fund-raising effort that openly seeks to take advantage of the controversy over the impeachment trial. Gore wrote in a letter sent to more than 850,000 past contributors: "Will our nation succumb to the forces of divisiveness, extremism and personal destruction that threaten to engulf Washington as I write this?"

Gore implied he was the next victim, writing: "Republicans candidates have already begun their attacks on me. . . . and they will only intensify. Will you stand with me as I face down these personal attacks?"

One of Gore's top aides, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed that the fund-raising appeal was based partly on the theory that the scandal at least temporarily helps Gore. "The party wants to stay unified as opposed to splitting apart," the official said.

The underlying message of the fund-raising appeal is a warning shot to potential primary opponents that Gore will have massive financial resources at his disposal. "Al Gore is going to win the nomination, either pretty or not pretty," the official said.

Already, the Clinton scandal has had the indirect effect of depleting the Democratic primary field.

Last November, in a previously unreported act, Kerrey took polls in Iowa and New Hampshire to try to determine the impact of the Clinton scandal on Gore. The result, according to Kerrey political director Steve Jarding, was astonishing.

"There was no question that this scandal was helping the vice president," Jarding said. "It was across the board. When you poll [likely] caucus and primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, it was startling. It leapt off the page."

Those results played a role in prompting Kerrey to leap out of the presidential campaign. Kerrey had an extra concern because he had pledged not to run for reelection to his Senate seat in 2000 if he ran for the presidency.

Still, Jarding, like a number of others interviewed for this report, said Gore can't afford to be complacent and hope the "rally around the White House" benefit continues. Unless Gore can establish his own identity and vision, Jarding said, he could be in trouble.

Indeed, national polls reveal a key Gore weakness. When pitted against potential Republican rivals such as Texas Governor George W. Bush and Elizabeth Dole, Gore finishes second.

A USA Today/CNN poll conducted by the Gallup organization and released Feb. 1 found that 39 percent of those surveyed said Gore's association with Clinton would make them less likely to vote for Gore, while 36 percent said it would make them more likely to back Gore, and 21 percent said it made no difference.

Gore for months has made a concerted effort to inoculate himself from the impeachment. He has praised the president, and by extension, himself, for the administration's achievements of the past six years, while calling Clinton's actions "indefensible."

Gore has tried to direct attention away from the impeachment scandal by criticizing the Republicans's partisan attacks. After Clinton was impeached by the Republican-majority House, Gore said the action "does a great disservice to a man I believe will be regarded in the history books as one of our greatest presidents."

Such comments have prompted Republicans to link Gore with Clinton in the same way Democrats in 1996 linked GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole with then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Former Vice President Dan Quayle, who campaigns as if he were already in a head-to-head match with Gore, said Gore is inseparable from Clinton.

Speaking in Iowa last week, Quayle said Gore owes it to the American people to say why Clinton "trashed the White House," asserting that Clinton and Gore are "attached at the hip."

But such a strategy relies on the theory that Clinton will drag down Gore. Gore is betting the opposite is true.