ENTURA, Calif. - Defiantly rejecting conventional wisdom about his prospects here, George W. Bush came to California yesterday to stake his claim on unfriendly territory, visiting mostly Democratic districts near the site of the Democratic National Convention next week.
But the visit, designed to send a message to Vice President Al Gore, was more an attention-getting gesture than a real attempt to raid Gore's base. If there is a real struggle for California - and political analysts think there may be for the first time since 1988 - it begins in earnest today, when Senator John S. McCain joins the Bush caravan for the first time since their bitter California primary fight.
Republicans hope McCain, who once lured hundreds of thousands of voters from other political parties in California, will help Bush transform what has for more than a decade been a losing battle for the GOP. Republicans were defeated here the last two presidential cycles. Both of the state's US senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, are liberal Democrats. The highest ranking Republican official is the secretary of state.
Bush aides say the Texas governor could win California, appealing to Hispanic voters as he has in his own state and presenting the moderate face that emerged from the Republican convention last week. With 54 electoral votes at stake, and fond memories of a winning streak that lasted from 1960 to 1988, Republicans are working even harder than usual, placing emphasis on McCain to appeal to centrist Democrats and independents.
''We think Senator McCain will help Governor Bush reach out to independents and swing voters,'' Bush communications director Karen Hughes said. ''We are obviously saying that we think California is a state we can win, and we don't want the Democrats to have free reign with publicity for their convention.''
Another possible incentive for the trip: Bush plans to raise up to $400,000 for the California state Republican Party tonight at a fund-raiser at the Stockton home of Alex Spanos, owner of the San Diego Chargers footall team. Bush is attending another fund-raiser in Seattle tomorrow.
Only five months have passed since McCain and Bush waged a fierce fight in the California primary, which pitted all Republican and Democratic candidates against one another on the same ballot. During an especially contentious stage, McCain was the target of an advertising campaign in San Francisco that attacked his environmental record and was paid for by a prominent Bush supporter from Texas.
In the end, California helped seal McCain's fate. The Arizona senator had hoped to win the ''beauty contest'' to give his campaign a symbolic boost, but he ended up in third place, pulling in just 23 percent of the vote. Bush won the vast majority of Republicans, with 60 percent, and a week later McCain dropped out of the race. At the time, Bush heralded his victory as proof of the power of the party faithful, who had chosen him to ''lead the Republican Party'' to the White House.
Now, with the Democrats preparing to use California as a launching pad to retaining the White House, Bush officials are reinterpreting those California primary results - and reshaping their image to present a candidate who is directly allied with McCain. Instead of noting that Gore came in first in California, winning 34 percent of the vote, Bush aides point out this: Together, Bush and McCain drew 3.9 million Californians to the polls, while Gore and Bradley attracted 3.3 million. McCain drew 40 percent of the independent vote.
Bush aides also point to polls that suggest Gore may hold a weak lead in California, perhaps as little as 3 or 4 percentage points. But the greatest indicator of their confidence is simply that the campaign has chosen to spend time here. Instead of continuing to plow through genuine swing states as he did last week, Bush is devoting almost an entire week to the West Coast, traveling to Stockton and Sacramento today and to Seattle tomorrow. In total, he has spent 25 days here since the campaign began, and yesterday marked his seventh trip since the March 7 primary.
Bush reflected confidence even in one of the most Democratic sections of Ventura County yesterday, appearing before thousands at a train station rally in Oxnard before boarding a north-bound train along the coast. Ignoring a vocal handful of Gore supporters in the crowd, Bush promised to repeal the estate tax, a pillar of his stump speech. And he insisted he would not cede California as some previous Republican candidates had.
''My intentions are to come here a lot, not only because it's a pretty place but we plan to come here a lot because we intend to carry California,'' Bush told the crowd. ''We're not writing off any place, particularly this important state ... Come November, mark my words ... California will be in the Bush-Cheney column.''
