ES MOINES - In a windowless room at a suburban shopping center, 13 Iowa Republicans played the kind of word-association game that can signal life or death for a presidential campaign.
''Lamar Alexander?'' focus group facilitator Frank Luntz asked the Iowans. ''Plaid shirt'' was the typical reply. ''Dan Quayle?'' Luntz said. ''Potato,'' several said.
''George W. Bush?'' Luntz said finally, referring to the front-runner of the Republican presidential field. ''Money,'' came one response. ''Son of a president.'' As with several of the candidates, only one person mentioned an issue, referring to Bush's education programs.
So why are the Bush backers supporting him? The answer was universal: because he can win.
Yesterday's gathering of more than 23,000 Republicans in Iowa for a much-hyped, nonbinding ''straw poll'' showed sizable support for that idea, as Bush finished first with 31 percent of the vote. But the meeting of the 13 randomly selected Republicans on Thursday could be equally instructive, providing insights into the way first impressions and personalities - and not always issues - are driving the race so early.
Here is the conundrum of Campaign 2000. Experts invariably say that few people are paying attention so early, and in the next breath declare that the campaign is all but over - earlier than ever in a contested race.
Bush himself is playing up this angle, running more as a pragmatist who can beat the Democratic nominee than a Republican whose chief concern at this stage usually is wooing GOP conservatives in the primaries and caucuses.
But hold on, say the voters. This is only the campaign preface, in which little is known about even the better-known candidates and the plot of this contest has hardly begun to develop. Jody Livingston, 35, a Des Moines credit analyst who attended the focus group sponsored by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, said she will remain undecided until there is more discussion of the issues. So far, she said, ''it's a popularity contest.''
Indeed, there have been no candidate debates, hardly any negative television ads, and little discussion of the issues - all of which heavily influence voter opinion. Bush, for example, had done few network television interviews until this weekend, and he has declined to outline such specifics as his tax-cut plan.
Significantly, the early stage of the campaign has centered not on one big issue that draws the attention of voters, but on the question of which candidate has the best chance to win. Many Republicans, anxious not to lose their third straight shot at the White House, have rallied around Bush. Many Democrats are wondering whether Gore is the best candidate to defeat the Republican nominee.
Paul Beck, chairman of the political science department at Ohio State University, said it makes sense that most Republicans are rallying around Bush, who is deemed most likely to win even if he might be a second or third choice when it comes to specific issues.
But the conventional wisdom about Bush as the inevitable GOP nominee could change as the Republican field shrinks and a top alternative emerges, he said. ''The opposition to Bush will consolidate around someone,'' Beck said. ''The question is whether he or she will have enough support to derail the train that Bush is riding on right now. It could happen.''
That, at least, is what such candidates as Alexander are hoping. Alexander acknowledged that Republicans at this point are looking more at who can win the general election than at specific issues. He said Republicans typically tell him that they have been humiliated by Clinton and are eager to do whatever is necessary to replace him.
''Republicans in the end are looking for a winner,'' said Alexander, who has traded his trademark plaid shirt for a fire-engine red polo top with an ''Alexander - President'' logo. Asked why Bush has taken off in the polls, Alexander recounted how he had to sit through six declarations that Bush was the ''overwhelming favorite'' as he readied for a recent television interview. That has prompted voters to latch onto the favorite while he is still untested, Alexander said.
''He is relying on celebrity and money,'' Alexander said, ''and I am relying on experience and issues.''
Moments after Alexander made these comments at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Larry and Sally Kafer of northern Iowa paused to ponder the race. While they were positive about Bush, they acknowledged knowing practically nothing about him and said they are undecided about whom to support. ''Just the name,'' was all Larry Kafer knew about Bush. ''He looks like his dad,'' Sally Kafer said.
Bush, according to political scientists, is benefiting from the ''blank slate'' phenomenon, in which voters are free to project any identity they want onto the candidate. It works in the early days for a candidate such as Bush, but not for better-known prospects such as Quayle, Alexander, or Vice President Al Gore. It may be helping Bill Bradley of New Jersey in his battle for the Democratic nomination, as many voters know little more about him than that he is a former US senator and played for the New York Knicks.
So far, the 2000 campaign is lacking the kind of ''grabber'' issues that could change the dynamics of the race. When voters were asked in a recent Gallup survey to name the most important issue, only 18 percent chose the top concern, a combined category that included morality, family decline, ethics, and the feeling that children are not being raised correctly. Only 13 percent said their top concern was jobs and the economy. This is far different than in many past campaigns, when war or the economy dominated the discussion. In 1992, for comparison, 67 percent said the top concern was jobs and the economy. Not surprisingly, voters in that election formed their opinions based on which candidate had the best economic plan.
The lack of a big issue has led most candidates to adopt a vague, warm and fuzzy campaign style. Bush talks about compassion, Bradley speaks of idealism, Gore talks about suburban sprawl, and Elizabeth Dole lauds public service.
So, for now, Bush has benefited from his name recognition and the tendency of many voters to prefer an outsider, such as a governor.
Aubrey Immelman, of the International Society of Political Psychology, said voters are naturally attracted to a front-runner who is charismatic. This is especially true in a time of peace and prosperity, when no big issue - such as war or a recession - is driving the race.
''Our civic values are increasingly being shaped by entertainment industry standards, and personality, particularly charisma and an ability to `connect with voters.''' he said. These traits ''have come to eclipse other, more important attributes of presidential candidates, including character, integrity, and leadership skills and talents.''
Moreover, the leading candidates appear to have had a sort of mind meld, moving to the center in key areas and making it hard to find big differences between them.
''There is not a lot of product differentiation,'' said Democratic consultant Jennifer Laszlo, using a marketing term to describe the candidates. ''Everybody has a good pollster giving them good advice.''
What matters in this early stage, she said, is an intangible attraction that can be summed up in this question: Would you feel comfortable sitting down and having a beer or coffee with the candidate?
Laszlo said that Bush may have passed that test, while many other candidates have not.
Perhaps no one had a worse first date with voters than Quayle, the former vice president. When the little-known Indianan was introduced in 1988 at the Republican National Convention, he was portrayed as a not-so-smart rich person who had avoided military service. Although there is ample reason to believe that most of the criticism was unfair, the image has stuck, and it may doom his chances of winning the presidential nomination next year.
Even now, when many voters think of Quayle, they recall his misspelling of the word ''potato,'' even though he has done more than almost any other candidate to be specific in outlining his agenda.
Steve Forbes is trying to learn from Quayle's experience. Forbes blasted into the 1996 campaign at the last minute, making a splash with his flat-tax plan. But once voters got beyond that, they encountered a man perceived as awkward and geeky, a one-note candidate who didn't pass the ''cup of coffee'' test and was trying to buy the nomination with his personal fortune.
This time, Forbes again is spending his money freely, but instead of launching harsh attacks against his opponents, Forbes is striving for a second chance with voters, offering the political equivalent of roses. His ads are mostly family portraits, and his words are soothing. In the most recent ad, Forbes's five daughters are profiled, with one saying earnestly, ''You have to be strong, and Dad's incredibly strong.'' Forbes appears on camera to tell how being a parent is ''humbling.''
While Forbes is still a long shot to win the nomination, his strategy clearly has helped reshape Iowa voters' opinions about him, and contributed to his second-place finish yesterday, with 21 percent of the vote.
