EARBORN, Mich. - With a two-day burst in the Midwest, the competition between Texas Governor George W. Bush and Arizona Senator John McCain shifts to the first major industrial state of the campaign with a population that dwarfs both South Carolina and New Hampshire and a diverse economy that ranges from rust belt industries to the market-makers of the digital age.
Michigan was supposed to be ''the firewall'' where Bush would secure his nomination if anything went wrong in earlier states. Now it is McCain who is looking to this state for a saving win, a place to prove himself once again and give new energy to his insurgent campaign.
The race here will take place against a backdrop of idiosyncracies and internecine disputes peculiar to Michigan. And the sheer size of the state and the limited time until Tuesday's primary is likely to change the style of the campaign if not its increasingly pugilistic tone, forcing the candidates to rely more on television and less on the intimate, town meeting style that McCain made famous in New Hampshire and that both candidates transplanted to South Carolina.
Since McCain's New Hampshire victory, he has been leading Bush in the polls in Michigan, though recently by narrowing margins. The critical quantity is how, in the brief interval from today to Tuesday, voters will digest the decisive Bush win in South Carolina.
''This is not a state that depends on other states to tell them how to vote,'' said Del Chenault, Bush's state director. ''If Michigan took its cues from other states, we'd have a President Tsongas and a President Buchanan.''
Michigan's Republican primary, which comes on the same day as Arizona's, is open to all voters, regardless of party affiliation. And because there will be no Democratic names on the ballot, many people who might have voted for Al Gore or Bill Bradley may instead weigh in on the GOP contest.
''There's a golden opportunity for McCain,'' said Rhodes Cook, an expert on the presidential nominating process, pointing to the run of early states - from New Hampshire to South Carolina to Michigan, Washington state and Virginia - that allow anyone to vote in the GOP primary. ''It does make it a very intriguing situation the Republican establishment probably didn't think it would be facing.''
For now, the Bush campaign is hoping that Democrats and liberal-minded independents stay out of the Republican fight. Governor John Engler, who is leading the Bush effort in Michigan, recently sent out a letter to Republican voters telling them that ''Al Gore and the Labor-ites are trying to hijack our primary,'' according to Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics.
''Democrats voting in a Republican primary is probably not a good thing, only because there's too much at play here that allows the devil to do his handiwork,'' warned Ron Kaufman, a Bush supporter who served as President Bush's political director in the White House.
Kaufman, Engler, and other Bush partisans suspect some Democratic groups and a few unions of organizing their members in order to cause mischief.
For example, a group calling itself ''D.O.G.G.-Engler,'' or ''Detroiters Out to Get even with Governor Engler,'' is urging pastors to tell their congregations to vote for McCain, since the governor backs Bush.
''Governor Engler and his Republican cohorts have not missed an opportunity to meddle in the internal affairs of the city of Detroit to the detriment of its citizens,'' the group said in a letter to local ministers. ''Since turnabout is fair play, it's about time that Detroiters meddle in the internal affairs of the Republican Party.''
And Geoffrey Feiger, the flamboyant attorney who used to represent Dr. Jack Kevorkian, has launched a radio campaign against Bush and Engler, focusing on Bush's call for tort-law overhaul. The spot is sponsored by Feiger's political action committee, Citizens Against Dumb and Dumber.
''When John Engler and George W. Bush talk about lawsuit abuse, they really mean they helped their friends in the insurance industry and denied all of us access to the courts,'' the 60-second ad says. ''Big businesses have contributed millions to Engler and Bush. That's why Engler and Bush have protected these corporations.''
The ad concludes: ''Supporting Republican tort reform is dumb. Now Engler wants you to support George W. Bush. That's dumber.''
The spot is running on Detroit-area radio stations. Feiger, who ran for governor against Engler in 1998, is planning to vote for McCain.
These anti-Engler, anti-Bush vendettas have the Bush camp crying foul.
''Obviously, in order to win in November, we want to be able to attract conservatives and centrists Democrats and moderates and independents,'' said Ralph Reed, a Bush adviser. ''We welcome them to our banner. What does concern us is the extent to which there is more systematic efforts by Democratic organizers and leaders to come into the Republican primary with motives other than what's best for our party.''
But McCain says those complaints are ignoring the larger point: Republicans are in the minority and need to reach out to Democrats to win back the White House, to hold onto Congress, and to govern.
''We want everyone in. Inclusion,'' he said, citing Ronald Reagan's governing coalition that drew major support from blue-collar, union, conservative Democrats, of whom there are many in Michigan.
McCain and Bush will also square off in Arizona on Tuesday. Hoping to embarrass McCain on his home turf, Bush poured about $2 million into the state for advertising and organization. Arizona Governor Jane Hull supports Bush, but McCain is sure to win the state, along with its 30 delegates to the Republican convention. Michigan sends 58 delegates, apportioned by congressional district, to the convention.
Upon leaving South Carolina last night, the Republican candidates entered a two-week, mad dash that will take them to Washington and Virginia prior to their Feb. 29 primaries and culminating on the March 7 ''Titanic Tuesday,'' with more than a dozen primaries and caucuses from New York to California.
In Virginia, Bush is the heavy favorite to win. A poll this weekend by the Old Dominion University/Virginian Pilot shows Bush leading 54 to 31 percent in Virginia.
McCain plans to focus his energies on Washington state, which holds its Republican primary Feb. 29 and where polls indicate a very close race. There, the strategies of the two campaigns have taken on a now familiar shape. The McCain campaign has located its headquarters in West Seattle, home to mostly independent and Democratic voters. The Bush people tend to work from Bellevue, which is solid Republican country.
And while the Bush campaign issues reams of news releases touting the local and state officials who have endorsed the governor's candidacy, the McCain campaign recently held a news conference to present independents and Democrats voting for the senator.
''Their whole campaign is geared toward Republicans,'' said Ralph Munro, Washington's secretary of state and the McCain chairman here. ''Our whole campaign is geared to Republicans, independents, and Democrats. We're not ashamed of that.''
