s the two presidential candidates make a mad dash for the finish line, it appears that Al Gore, who has been slightly behind George W. Bush in most recent polls, may have the last-minute boost he needs to spring past the Texas governor and win the marathon for the White House.
To a lot of Bush fans, and even disheartened Gore supporters who see their candidate as still behind, that may sound unlikely.
And, contrary to what some may think, this boost is not going to come from Thursday's news report that Bush was arrested and fined in 1976 for drunken driving in Maine, which he has acknowledged. This 11th-hour revelation alone is not likely to be fatal to Bush's bid, although how he handles it will be important.
No, Gore's final boost in these final hours will come from a group of voters who appear to be motivated to come out in large numbers for him on Tuesday - the African-American electorate.
Although black voters have not been as enthusiastic about Gore as they are about President Clinton, they see good reason to vote for Gore: The alternative is someone who represents a threat to their future.
Black voters - who can make the crucial difference between Gore and Bush in several key battleground states - may not exactly be excited about Gore, but they are truly fearful of Bush. And that fear will prompt a large black turnout for Gore on Election Day.
Atlanta-based pollster Harry L. Ross, an African-American, believes that many pollsters have not factored that into their survey numbers. He and black political observers argue that most polls are like the US Census takers; the first undercounts the black vote, just as the second undercounts the black population.
In key states such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, the black population is close to 20 percent. A large black voter turnout in those states for Gore could make the difference. Even in Missouri, which most pollsters have tipped to Bush, black votes could turn it for Gore.
Although blacks in Missouri are only about 5 percent of the population, a large turnout could be as good for Gore as a large vote for Nader could be for Bush.
''The element of surprise in this election is going to be the black electorate, because everybody thinks the black electorate is asleep,'' Ross said. ''Even I felt 10 days ago that this election would pass them by and catch black voters asleep. I have since changed my analysis and realize the insurgency of black voters. People have told me that they are fearful of Bush to the point of panic and are going to the polls in large numbers to vote for Gore.''
An indication of a large black turnout on Election Day was reflected in reports of a large throng of voters in Georgia's DeKalb County, the second largest county in the state, waiting in line last week to cast absentee ballots. The scene suggests a similarly heavy turnout for Gore on Election Day.
Religious leaders such as the Rev. Walter Kimbrough, pastor of the Cascade United Methodist Church in Atlanta, also see a strong possibility that a large black voter turnout will give Gore the edge over Bush.
''If we turn out in large numbers on Election Day, African-Americans will elect Al Gore as the next president,'' the Rev. Kimbrough predicts. ''If we stay home in large numbers, then we will elect George Bush.''
Kimbrough echoes the view that black s feel strongly a Bush presidency is not in their best interests, and so fear of his election will bring them to the polls.
''This election will determine whether we move four years into the 21st century, or 40 years backward to 1960,'' he said. One reason for this fear, he said, is the fact that the ''next president in all probability will select three or four US Supreme Court justices who will be around for the next 40 years. We don't need another Clarence Thomas; he is sure not Thurgood Marshall,'' Kimbrough said, referring to the late justice who was a hero for his civil rights victories before his appointment to the court. ''Those appointments are very critical to us as black people.''
Kimbrough, who will deliver a ''get out the vote'' sermon today to his 5,000-member congregation, said, ''This election to us is not about ego. It's about survival. It's about moving forward or moving backward. So people have to get the word out.''
The importance of the black vote was underscored by Clinton's recent appearance with black radio host Tom Joyner, whose daily music and talk show reaches an estimated 8 million blacks throughout the country. Both Clinton and the Rev. Jesse L. Jackson have been helping turn out the black vote for Gore.
In sum, if there is a much larger turnout of black voters on Election Day than most polls predict, then, as Ross and Kimbrough suggest, African-American voters will be the key to moving Al Gore into the Oval Office and keeping George W. Bush in Texas.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
