ES MOINES - When the six Republican presidential candidates take the stage for a debate here tonight, one question will probably hang over their contest without being asked: Why did Senator John McCain decide against competing in the Iowa caucus?
Even as the Arizona senator marches evenly with Texas Governor George W. Bush in New Hampshire, he has effectively ceded the top spot to Bush in Iowa, where the first votes in the nominating process will be cast next month.
Ostensibly, the McCain campaign says that it could not afford to divide its resources against the $70 million Bush juggernaut and thus chose to make its stand in New Hampshire. McCain's opposition to federal subsidies for ethanol, an Iowa product, also has been cited as a reason.
But there are Iowa Republicans who believe McCain may be missing an opportunity.
Recalling a precedent set by Patrick J. Buchanan in the 1996 Iowa caucus, when a strong second-place finish energized his followers in New Hampshire and enabled Buchanan to defeat Bob Dole there, Dee Stewart, executive director of the Iowa Republican Party, said, ''When the race gets to New Hampshire, McCain may wish, in hindsight, he had competed here.''
Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, a Democrat, crossed party lines to offer his own analysis. ''I think McCain made a mistake not campaigning here.'' Vilsack dismissed ethanol as a burning issue and said McCain's advocacy of campaign finance reform ''would strike a chord in Iowa.''
McCain spokesman Howard Opinsky said Saturday there were no regrets. ''We anticipated we would make inroads in New Hampshire. That's one reason we developed the strategy we did.''
McCain will make a rare Iowa appearance today when he joins Bush, publisher Steve Forbes, conservative theoretician Gary Bauer, Utah Senator Orrin Hatch and commentator Alan Keyes for a 90-minute debate. The debate will be televised on MSNBC; WBUR-FM (90.9) will air the debate on radio in Boston.
With only six weeks remaining before the Jan. 24 caucus here, Bush's greatest competition is coming from the far right, where Forbes and Bauer are battling for support among the Iowa party's influential Christian conservative constituency. Keyes enjoys a small, intense following among Iowa opponents of abortion, too, but has little money to promote his cause.
Forbes, who wound up in fourth place here four years ago campaigning for a flat tax, is accentuating the abortion issue in an effort to appeal to the religious right in 2000. While spending millions of dollars from his personal fortune, Forbes on Thursday castigated Bush for ''naming a highway after an abortionist.'' He cited a 1997 bill, signed by Bush but initiated by others, that named a portion of a highway in Houston for a prominent doctor who died earlier in the decade.
''Forbes is absolutely a Johnny-come-lately on the subject,'' said Marlys Popma, a leader of antiabortion forces in Iowa who is directing Bauer's campaign. ''The thing that bothers me about Steve Forbes's conversion is his saying `I've always been prolife.' Where was he when we were fighting on the floor for the prolife plank at the Republican convention? We've seen him nowhere.''
Popma says Bauer, an opponent of abortion who headed the Family Research Council before becoming a candidate, ''offers the full package'' among those on the right challenging Bush. ''He has an ability to raise money Alan Keyes can't, and he has a better ability to articulate the message than Steve Forbes.''
The last Des Moines Register poll, published a month ago, found that Bush had the support of 49 percent of those who said they were likely to attend the GOP caucuses. He was followed by Forbes with 20 percent, McCain with 8 percent, Bauer with 7 percent, Keyes with 5 percent, and Hatch, a latecomer in the race, with only 1 percent. Another November survey by PSI, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, gave Bush 53 percent, Forbes 16 percent, McCain 12 percent, and Bauer 6 percent.
According to Stewart, McCain's apparent objective in Iowa ''is to do nothing, so if he doesn't do well he can write it off. And if he comes in a strong third, he can say: `Look what I did without campaigning.'''
There has been speculation here about what role Brian Kennedy, the leader of the Republican Party in Iowa in 1996, is playing for McCain this year. Kennedy originally went to work for Lamar Alexander's presidential campaign. After Alexander dropped out of the race, Kennedy joined McCain's national staff.
''Brian is an outstanding organizer and political strategist, but we're not using him in any organizational way in Iowa,'' said Opinsky.
Republicans here say Kennedy has sent some pro-McCain e-mail to contacts in Iowa. But in a caucus situation, which requires grass-roots organization, it seems doubtful that a stealth campaign could be set up from a distance against a Bush network that Stewart calls ''the best in the state - tenacious and aggressive.''
Bush's spokesman in Iowa, Eric Woolson, expressed satisfaction with Bush's standing in the state. ''A number of people feel he's a winner. They feel comfortable with him and his style, the way he looks them in the eye. He's got integrity and he's able to address their questions.''
