MES, Iowa - The Republican presidential race seemed on the brink of shrinking yesterday, as Lamar Alexander signaled that he was likely to drop out after a dismal finish in Saturday's Iowa straw poll and other candidates reconsidered their strategies as the focus shifts to New Hampshire.
While Texas Governor George W. Bush and Steve Forbes had been expected to make their one-two finish in the straw poll in the first-caucus state, the winner of the expectations game was Elizabeth Dole, who had been pilloried by the pundits and was clearly rejuvenated by her solid third-place showing.
The vote ''was a wonderful victory for me,'' Dole said on NBC-TV's ''Meet The Press'' as she prepared to travel to the first-primary state of New Hampshire last night. ''I hope the pundits will take my candidacy seriously now.''
Dole's showing was also impressive because she spent far less money than Bush and Forbes and she took the controversial step earlier in the year of insisting that abortion should not be an issue in the campaign, an unpopular decision in Iowa but one that could be better received in other states.
As the GOP candidates streamed out of Iowa yesterday, the campaign focus is likely to shift now away from the social and agricultural issues that were in the spotlight there and toward some of the economic and tax policies that are likely to receive more scrutiny in New Hampshire.
Alexander, meanwhile, seemed on the verge of quitting after receiving just 6 percent of the straw vote despite the hundreds of days he has spent campaigning in Iowa during the last five years and over the course of two presidential races.
''Obviously, I'm disappointed,'' Alexander said on ''Meet the Press.''
''There's a powerful force in this country to nominate George W. Bush. ... Over the next day or two I'll be thinking about that.''
A top Alexander aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he expected an announcement by the former Tennessee governor today in Nashville.
Aides had indicated that Alexander would quit if he finished poorly, especially since it would hurt fund-raising for his cash-starved campaign. The prospect that Alexander would quit after a nonbinding straw poll underscored how significant the straw vote has become, despite complaints from some analysts that the event is a meaningless exercise in vote-buying. The Forbes campaign spent more than $1.5 million on the event, followed by Bush's tab of more than $750,000.
Dole, by contrast, spent about $200,000 to pull in her 3,410 votes, suggesting she could have done even better if she had the resources of Bush or Forbes.
With Dole aides touting their ''invisible army'' of supporters, they hoped to put to rest recent reports that have characterized her campaign as running on fumes.
The straw poll was a possible disaster for Dan Quayle, the former vice president. He has insisted he will stay in the race, but his prospects seemed dim given his lackluster tally of 916 votes, which put him in eighth place, behind radio host Alan Keyes.
Yesterday, however, Quayle was unbowed, telling Fox News that he would ''absolutely not'' quit the race.
''I believe I am the only one who can put the Reagan coalition together, the social conservatives, economic conservatives, national defense conservatives,'' Quayle said.
Several of the candidates who are basing their campaigns on those issues disagreed. Gary Bauer, a former Reagan domestic adviser and head of the Family Research Council, said his fourth-place finish in the poll showed that he was a leading voice for social conservatives.
The dynamics of the race could now hinge greatly on Forbes, who is using his own money to finance a national television ad campaign that proved effective in Iowa. That is potentially bad news for Bush, whose hope was to wrap up the nomination early without a bruising primary battle.
Several months ago, Forbes conducted intensive research into the way he is perceived by Iowa voters. The result was disheartening: Iowans knew him as a rich publisher and had no idea he had a family life, with five daughters. As a result, Forbes has carefully marketed his family, with ads that show his daughters saying how much he cares about them. When Forbes supporters were interviewed at the straw poll on Saturday, they invariably mentioned Forbes's daughters and their belief that he is a family man.
This is a far cry from 1996, when Forbes ran a one-note campaign for the 17 percent flat tax, which would have provided a far greater benefit to the wealthiest Americans. This time, Forbes sometimes skims over the flat tax. And, instead of trying to parse words on abortion, as he did in 1996, he flatly declares himself to be ''pro-life,'' which helped him immeasurably among many Iowa Republicans. Forbes also hired a number of former Christian Coalition officials in an effort to strengthen ties with religious conservatives.
The Iowa contest also highlighted the way Forbes and Bush are competing for the role of outsider. Forbes, who has never held elective office, is running as a businessman fighting against Washington. Bush runs as a governor who will take on Washington, but he has the backing of most of the Washington GOP establishment, making it harder for him to argue that he will change the culture of the capital. Yesterday, Forbes said Bush was all money and no message, which the publisher said ''equals mush.''
Even Quayle, who served as a US representative, US senator and vice president, is trying to run as an outsider. And though Quayle owes his national prominence to former President Bush, who was Quayle's running mate in 1988 and 1992, Quayle doesn't hesitate to attack George W. Bush as an out-of-touch tool of the Washington establishment.
''The Washington establishment wants to tell you who to vote for,'' Quayle said in a speech Saturday before the straw vote results were announced. ''They say that issues don't matter. Let's send them a message.''
But the message that was sent to Quayle in Iowa appeared to be that his time in the national spotlight may have passed.
Senator John McCain of Arizona, who didn't participate in what he called the ''sham'' straw vote, said he looked forward to campaigning in New Hampshire and another early primary state, South Carolina.
