LEAR LAKE, Iowa - From the perspective of New Hampshire, Iowa has sneaked in the back door of presidential politics. For years, New Hampshire prided itself on being the first primary state. If Iowa wanted to have the first caucus, well, what's a caucus, anyway? Surely not as important as an honest-to-goodness primary.
But New Hampshire never bargained on a caucus combined with an August Republican straw poll, which many of the campaigns are treating like the opening shot in the presidential race. When the Iowa Republican Party holds its extravaganza in Ames on Saturday, it expects to attract 15,000 voters, nine out of the 10 Republican candidates, and 400 members of the national media. Only Senator John McCain of Arizona, who opposes the ethanol subsidies that are popular in the state, is skipping the event.
''It is sort of like we have two caucuses now,'' boasted Steve Grubbs, a former Iowa Republican Party chairman now advising Steve Forbes, who hopes for a strong showing in the straw poll.
The straw poll was always intended to be more about money than politics. It costs $25 to ''vote,'' meaning that the state GOP will bring in $375,000 if the expected 15,000 people show up. Most of the tickets are bought by the campaigns and then given to voters, who are bused to the event. The voters get free food, free concerts by country music stars, and, if they are really desperate, hours of speeches by the candidates.
New Hampshire, meanwhile, has ditched plans to hold its own straw poll, determining that such an event would be expensive, complicated, and ethically dubious.
''We decided to stick with the primary tradition of not having to pay to see the candidates,'' said Jayne Marcucci, executive director of the New Hampshire Republican Party, insisting that New Hampshire is not jealous of Iowa's ever-increasing time in the spotlight.
Ever since Elizabeth Dole entered the Republican race, she has been pilloried for her reputation as an over-scripted candidate.
But it is hard to imagine a presidential prospect who sticks to his script more carefully than Texas Governor George W. Bush. From speech to speech, from state to state, Bush recites the same words he used to open his campaign two months ago in Iowa. He talks about mobilizing the ''armies of compassion,'' and being a ''compassionate conservative.''
''On this ground, I take my stand,'' Bush says at nearly every event.
Ad-libs are rare. When Bush spoke in the northern Iowa city of Clear Lake last week, he made little effort to talk about the city's beautiful setting and the lake behind him, shimmering in the setting sun. Instead, he launched into his stump speech.
In many ways, the speech is most interesting for what Bush does not say. In his Clear Lake address, for instance, Bush never said the word ''abortion'' and he never mentioned his father, the former president. (Perhaps Bush has been reading a book on the 1988 campaign called ''Whose Broad Stripes and Bright Stars.'' The chapter on his father's third-place finish in the caucus is entitled ''Iowa: Bush's worst moment.'')
The Texas governor, under strict orders to stay on message and not flash his reputed temper, zealously watches his words. When Bush was asked about an aide's optimistic prediction that he would get 5,000 votes in the straw poll, the tight-lipped governor muttered: ''I'm just happy we'll turn out as many as show up.''
Then a Texas reporter pestered Bush with more than half a dozen questions about why he refuses to deny using cocaine in his younger days. Bush again stuck to his script, saying he wouldn't ''play those games,'' nor respond to ''trashmouth politics.'' Then he winked and smiled and went on shaking hands.
Forbes is spending his personal fortune in hopes of doing well in the straw poll, splurging on a $10 million advertising campaign that is mostly tailored for Iowa. But if Forbes surprises the field in the poll, a major factor may be a few thousand dollars' worth of high-tech equipment that he totes around the state. This includes a small digital camera, a Toshiba laptop computer and two Hewlett Packard laser printers.
At every campaign stop, Forbes encourages Iowans to line up and have their picture taken with him, and thousands have obliged. The photo images are stored on a tiny digital disk, which aides rush to insert into the computer on one of Forbes's two buses. Then, while the crowd is enjoying the free food, Forbes's aides print out every picture. At the end of the event, the guests are all invited to pick up their photos.
The strategy is paying off. Instead of dumping campaign brochures into the trash cans after each speech - as happens at most rallies - everyone walks away with a personal photo with the candidate. As of last week, Forbes aides believed that the candidate had posed with 5,000 people. If each of them goes to the straw poll and votes for Forbes - an unlikely scenario, to be sure - he probably would win.
Forbes, in an interview, said that this is all far different from his last campaign in Iowa. He wasn't even a candidate during the 1995 straw poll. ''The crucial difference this year is time,'' Forbes said. ''I've visited 77 counties in four weeks.'' (That's out of a total of 99.)
Bush, by contrast, has spent only three nights and six days in the state - hardly trying to keep his promise to take his campaign to every front porch in Iowa. After Bush spoke in Clear Lake last Wednesday, the sign-up sheet for buses to the straw poll looked nearly empty. Bush did draw about 700 people to the event, and he shook hands with everyone.
But Bush's supporters had to bring their own cameras, and take their own pictures.
