NEW HAMPSHIRE WEEKLY / POLITICAL DIARY / LAURA A. KIERNAN

It could depend on when you ask

By Laura A. Kiernan, May 9, 1999

A little touchy, are we? Governor Jeanne Shaheen's chief of staff, Rich Sigel, was on the phone to pollsters at Franklin Pierce College right after their numbers showed his boss's job approval ratings had sunk to 40 percent. Poll coordinator Robin Marra says Sigel was "a little curt" and wanted to know if it was a statewide poll (it was) and asked for a copy of the questions that were asked. "I got the feeling they believed we were out to ambush the governor," Marra said.

So, what about that Franklin Pierce number? And how does it square with a new poll out of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center, which showed Shaheen's job approval and favorability at 64 percent? Consider this: Franklin Pierce conducted its poll (it works with WNDS-TV) during the last six highly contentious days of the education fight, ending their calls on the day before a bipartisan solution was announced. Meanwhile, the bulk of the UNH survey (the poll was conducted for WMUR-TV) was conducted after the settlement was reached and Shaheen was splashed across the newspapers declaring a new day for New Hampshire school kids.

Marra, an associate professor of political science, doesn't dispute that timing could have skewed his results -- his polling operation is new, he hadn't polled on Shaheen before and wanted a baseline. Sigel declined to comment on the Franklin Pierce poll, saying only: "We believe the people of New Hampshire are supportive of the decisions the governor has made regarding the school funding situation."

P.S. UNH's new survey center director, Andrew E. Smith, is back in business and rebuilding following the departure almost two years ago of pollster R. Kelly Myers. Longtime UNH pollster David Moore, now with the Gallup organization, is on the center's advisory board. Smith, who most recently was at the Institute for Survey and Policy Research at the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee, is a political scientist who specializes in elections and survey methodology.

Figures don't back ship-jumping talk

More poll stuff to chew on: There's been talk in the media that some people who might have supported Vice President Al Gore's presidential bid will jump ship for his opponent, former US senator Bill Bradley, because they are upset with Shaheen's handling of the education crisis. Shaheen's husband, William, runs Gore's New Hampshire campaign: No doubt the governor will get on board when the time is right. Aside from UNH's finding that Shaheen has emerged "unscathed" from the education crisis, the presidential survey numbers also make you think that the Gore-to-Bradley analysis may be a stretch. Both UNH and Franklin Pierce had Gore with a 2-1 lead over Bradley in New Hampshire.

UNH said its results showed voters didn't know much about Bradley. It so happens, if you want to know more, Bradley will be barnstorming around the state Tuesday through Thursday from Nashua, Laconia and Manchester to Exeter.

For now, Sununu has job satisfaction

Indeed, people have been talking to US Representative John Sununu about running for governor, but Sununu says (what a surprise) he hasn't made any decisions. "I love my job," he says. Indeed, some wonder why Sununu would do it now. After all, he has a coveted seat on the House Appropriations Committee and on the Budget and Small Business committees; he appears to thrive on the big, complicated business of Congress, and he would have to take a pay cut (the governor makes $86,000 and change; members of Congress make $136,673).

At the GOP soiree the other night in Manchester, Sununu seemed a little taken aback when he was asked what he thought about the resolution of the state's education funding crisis. When prodded a bit (we were talking about running for governor, after all), Sununu said he was "very concerned" that a change in tax policy would undermine local involvement in schools. He said a constitutional amendment, keeping the courts out of the works, would have "made it a much better process."

Gregg gets top spot in UNH poll category

The pollsters over at UNH released new "favorability" ratings for the state's US senators and congressmen. The winner was Republican US Senator Judd Gregg with 62 percent favorability statewide. US Senator Bob Smith, who is running in the GOP presidential primary, had a 45 percent favorability rating statewide, and 33 percent unfavorable.

US Representative Charles Bass (who last week endorsed George W. Bush for president) had a 50 percent favorability rating in the 2d Congressional District. In the 1st, 63 percent of registered voters gave his GOP colleague, John E. Sununu, a favorable rating.

Zeliff goes to work for Alexander camp

Bill Zeliff, who cut his political teeth during the 1988 Bush campaign and then went on to serve in Congress, has signed on to be national cochairman for former Tennessee governor Lamar Alexander. "You know what? This is the guy most qualified to be president," Zeliff said.

As to his connections with the Bush family, Zeliff said, "I love the Bushes. I still correspond with the president. He never forgets you. But now is now and then is then."

Streeter plans run for mayor of Nashua

Things have been a little rocky at Nashua City Hall, where Mayor Don Davidson had to fight off a recall effort, and then a runoff, after critics said he broke his promise to abide by a budget cap. Now, if he decides to run for reelection in November, Davidson will face off with one of the big names in Nashua politics, Bernie Streeter.

Streeter, who has spent 30 years on the Executive Council, says it's time to do away with the "attitude of arrogance" he says comes out of the current mayor's office. He ticked off a list of local issues he will talk about: cell towers in residential neighborhoods, a possible new high school, an overflow of stop signs, and upgrading operations at City Hall. But there is also one small, personal matter that got under Streeter's skin.

During the height of the Davidson flap, Streeter says his name was taken off a petition to get the spending cap issue on the ballot because he had not added the official "Jr." to his signature. (Streeter hasn't used it since his father passed away in 1984.) "That was one thing that really irritated me," Streeter said.

Cochairmen of Streeter's campaign are state Representative Griffin Dalianis and Alderman at Large George Pressley, who lost to Davidson in the runoff election in January. Streeter says that if he wins the full-time mayor's job, he will still serve out his term on the Executive Council, which expires in December 2000. Whether he will run for the Executive Council again (he can by law), he's not ready to say. One possible candidate for Streeter's seat on the Executive Council: former Democratic state Senator Mary Nelson.

Davidson has not said whether he'll run again, but local observors said a race with Streeter would be tough, and expensive. One more thing about Streeter: He's a state co-chairman for GOP presidential candidate Lamar Alexander, whose struggling New Hampshire campaign would no doubt love to have a supporter in the mayor's office in the state's second-largest city.

Red Cross stories touch Dole audience

After going on about her role as a Cabinet secretary, building a new airport in Washington and settling a coal strike, Elizabeth Dole finally gripped her audience at the New Hampshire Women's Forum last week when she described the horrors she had seen as president of the American Red Cross, things she said she hadn't been able to talk about for months. There was dead silence in the banquet room at the Sheraton Tara, and some tears, as Dole described what it was like to feel the protruding bones of a starving child in Africa, and to step over dead bodies.

"She touched everybody deeply when she spoke from the heart," said Kathy Donahue, a registered independent who voted twice for President Clinton.

Dole was the debut speaker for the forum. Despite its pleas for Democrats to join, the forum has a decidedly conservative persuasion -- so far. The first three people honored by the group were conservatives, state Senators Pat Krueger of Manchester and Mary Brown of Chichester, and former state senator David Wheeler of Milford.

No matter, said Diane Denis of Nashua, an independent who also voted for Clinton. "I think people want to get back to values," Denis said.

McCain aide feels buoyed by numbers

Arizona Senator John McCain's New Hampshire campaign aide, Mike Dennehy, was at the women's forum event, making sure all media types knew that the UNH poll showed his candidate running very close to Dole with 14 percent favorability among GOP voters, compared with 16 percent for Dole and 37 percent for Texas Governor George W. Bush. While McCain seemed to gain speed, it was a big drop for Dole, who was neck and neck with Bush at the start of the year when the buzz about her pending candidacy was very hot.

McCain will be in the state Monday for lunch with the Rotary in Manchester and dinner with the West Point Society in Bedford. On board with his team now are Executive Councilor Peter Spaulding, Grafton County GOP chairman Nancy Merrill and state Representative Kathleen Flora of Bedford.

Got a tip or a comment from the campaign trail, state government or town hall? The Political Diary wants to hear from you at: Political Diary, Boston Globe/New Hampshire Weekly, 1650 Elm St., Manchester, NH 03101, or by e-mail at: Kiernan(at sign)globe.com. Please include home and work telephone numbers.