hile most political beings will be focused on Tuesday's crucial presidential debate in Boston between Al Gore and George W. Bush, what will be happening on the grounds outside the University of Massachusetts debate hall may also be important to the outcome of this election.
There will be thousands of supporters cheering their respective candidate on and much, if not most, of the crowd is expected to be from organized labor. Labor says it hopes to attract as many as 10,000 workers.
As one labor organizer said, this rally is ''basically an election day prep.'' In essence, if there is a high turnout of organized labor and other Democratic supporters for Gore at the rally, the thinking goes, there is a good chance there will be a high turnout of the same groups for Gore on Election Day. This debate gives rally organizers a chance to rehearse their turnout strategy and to make any necessary adjustments before ballots are cast.
Although even Republicans concede that, barring unforeseen events, Massachusetts is likely to go for Gore, a poor performance by the vice president at the Boston debate and a lower than expected turnout of labor and Democrats at the rally could encourage the GOP in other states where the fight for electoral votes is close.
Among the people expected at the rally, in addition to Gore and Bush supporters, are backers of fellow candidates Ralph Nader of the Green Party and Pat Buchanan of the Reform Party. Both camps will register their protest at their candidates' not being included in the debate because they failed to meet the Presidential Debate Commission's threshold of 15 percent voter support.
Overall, the turnout of thousands of people outside the debate hall will contrast sharply with the 300 people expected inside. But on both sides of the wall, the expectations game will be in full gear. In this heavily Democratic state, where labor has clout, labor and Democratic Party organizers know they will have to meet those expectations or risk negative consequences.
Inside, expectations will be high for Gore, who is considered the better debater. If he delivers a better than expected performance, he will probably emerge strong enough to break the current stalemate and win the election.
Given Gore's edge in the Bay State, all Bush has to do on Election Day is garner a respectable vote to keep from looking as if he failed here. But should he fall far short of that, it can only mean more bad news for Bush, more embarrassment for Republican Governor Paul Cellucci and Lieutenant Governor Jane Swift, and for the GOP nationally.
Bush can take little solace in what happened in the debates between US Senator Edward M. Kennedy and his challenger, Mitt Romney, in 1994, and between US Senator John F. Kerry and his opponent, Governor William F. Weld, in 1996.
Early on, Kennedy was perceived as being in serious political trouble, with polls showing Romney surging ahead. But two things happened: Kennedy's strong debate performance reenergized his campaign. And organized labor and the Democratic Party, recognizing that their political icon was in trouble, turned out several thousand people at the rally outside the debate at Faneuil Hall. That huge labor turnout was a precursor to what would happen at the polls, where Kennedy eventually won easily.
The same two events happened for Kerry in his campaign against Weld two years ago. In early going, it was a tough battle that some Democrats expected Kerry to lose. But as he waged an intense campaign for labor's support, among both the leaders and rank-and-file members, labor rallied to his defense, and his polling numbers began to change for the better. Then his confidence during the debates let him best Weld in the final verbal slugfests. Kerry kept his Senate seat.
Of course, both labor and other Democrats can point to the election battle for governor between Cellucci and state Attorney General Scott Harshbarger. Unlike Kennedy and Kerry, Harshbarger - who lost his challenge to Cellucci, the acting governor - did not receive the solid Democratic support or the strong backing of organized labor that Kennedy and Kerry enjoyed during their campaigns. Nonetheless, the huge get-out-the vote by organized labor and Democrats on Election Day made the race a lot closer than some polls had predicted.
So while some campaign strategists will be closely watching the high-stakes debate Tuesday night, other strategists will be closely scrutinizing the rally outside to see labor's turnout for Gore. In a race this close, it's going to count.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
