EW YORK - Hillary Clinton and Rick Lazio meet for a second debate this morning, as their race for the US Senate comes down to the wire nearly as close, closely watched, and costly as the presidential election.
Advisers to both candidates doubt the rematch - to be broadcast nationally on CNN - will be as nasty as their Sept. 13 debate in Buffalo. There, Lazio, a four-term Republican congressman, hammered the first lady so ferociously - calling her ''a disaster,''''beyond shameless,'' and waving a piece of paper in her face - that his own image took a beating.
Clinton's ratings in the polls climbed above 50 percent for the first time since her campaign started, and she made especially strong gains among suburban women and independent voters, who had been notably unenthusiastic about her before.
''I think you'll see a more positive Lazio this time out,'' a well-placed Republican said Friday night. ''He'll do more to define himself, and he'll let proxies go on the attack.''
His campaign has been moving in that direction lately. His last few TV ads have emphasized social legislation that he sponsored in Congress, while the punch line of nearly every previous ad - ''Hillary Clinton, you just can't trust her'' - was noticeably absent.
However, negative spots have not been abandoned. His latest ad attacks Clinton as a ''tax-and-spend liberal,'' and concludes, ''Hillary Clinton, she just doesn't know New York.''
That slight shift in negative rhetoric might be a response to polls showing that, while most voters have no problem with the first lady's trustworthiness, many are still disturbed that she comes from out of state.
Meanwhile, Clinton's new ads, while reflecting no big shift in strategy or image, emphasize some positions that she has not played up before - for example, her support of certain middle-class tax cuts.
This twist might be a response to polls showing that, while most voters see Clinton as the better candidate for education and health care, they prefer Lazio on tax policy.
Given the close contest - polls range from a tie to a 9-point lead for Clinton - both candidates are touching and retouching all the demographic bases in their final weeks of campaigning. Clinton especially has been dashing across the state, cutting Lazio's natural Republican edge in the suburbs and upstate while also galvanizing her solid base in New York City, especially in Brooklyn and Harlem.
Republican leaders, while dispirited by the last debate, have hardly lost hope. One poll that shows Clinton ahead also reveals that one-quarter of her supporters might change their minds - and that one-eighth of all voters say they haven't heard enough about Lazio to know what they think of him.
''He still has a lot of room to move up,'' an adviser said.
Lazio may have blown one potentially major tactical advantage. Two weeks ago, he cornered Clinton into accepting a mutual ban on ads funded by ''soft money'' - donations from the party or outside groups, which carry fewer legal restrictions. This was a risky move for Clinton, since she has relied heavily on soft money, while Lazio has raised far more in ''hard'' cash - donations to specific candidates, which are severely restricted.
However, on Thursday, it was revealed that one of Lazio's new ads was paid for by the Republican National Committee. Clinton accused Lazio of breaking the agreement. He has since pulled the ad, but the discord might unravel the deal, which would give Clinton's finances a last-minute boost.
Already, this has been by far the most expensive US Senate race in history, with the Daily News calculating last week that the candidates have raised, in hard and soft money, nearly $100 million.
