ith 12 months to go, the probable political landscape of next November's election has begun to take shape.
One way to get a sense of what will happen then is by reviewing what transpired in the months before past elections.
In 1988, Republican contender George Bush and Democratic front-runner Michael S. Dukakis battled for their parties' nominations, and then against each other for the nation's top job. A few months out from election day, polls showed Dukakis with a comfortable lead. But he somehow managed to lose that edge and end up as runner-up when the votes were counted.
The same lesson could prove true for George W. Bush who - presuming he battles back a primary challenge from US Senator John McCain - is considered the front-runner against either of the Democratic challengers, Vice President Al Gore or Bill Bradley, the former senator from New Jersey.
Because front-runners have a way of losing their leads, Gore, who is currently lagging 10 points behind Bush in some polls, has as good a chance as Bush of being elected next November.
Polls show Democrats Gore and Bradley, and Republicans Bush and McCain, locked in close battle for the New Hampshire primary in February. But the winner of that primary, as history has proved, does not necessarily win the presidency the following November.
When the late Paul Tsongas won the New Hampshire primary in 1992 to the surprise of many pollsters, second-place finisher Bill Clinton went on to win other primaries, the nomination, and the presidency - proving that other factors, such as money and a strong political network, are also vital to becoming president.
Next year, Gore (presuming he's the Democratic nominee) will have the money and a strong national network to help him win the nomination at the Democratic National Convention. That will put him in position to run a strong campaign against Bush down the stretch.
Bush's vulnerability is underscored by the fact that polls now show McCain, with his come-from-behind candidacy, now tied with him in New Hampshire.
And if the 1988 election offers any lessons, it's that even if Bush maintains a strong lead after the GOP convention, it could still evaporate into the fall air, as did Dukakis's commanding lead over George W.'s father that year. Whether Gore - who is striving to shake off his stiff image - does overtake his foes is, of couse, anybody's guess, but history has proved at least that it can happen.
And history has also proved that a carpetbagger running in New York for US senator can also win, despite being behind in the polls 12 months before the election.
When the late Robert Kennedy ran for a Senate seat from New York in 1964, even his famous name could not guarantee a win over the incumbent, Kenneth Keating. The media inside and outside New York kidded and chided Kennedy about his carpetbagging and his lack of knowledge about the state.
Nonetheless, despite having to run the political New York gantlet - something Hillary Rodham Clinton is currently experiencing - Kennedy won.
Hillary Clinton, too, can overcome the jokes about her carpetbagging campaign, and her current second place in the polls, to defeat New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in next year's senatorial race. Of course, Kennedy's example does not guarantee a Clinton victory, but it makes it more of a possibility than Clinton critics might be willing to admit.
Current polls also give Democrats a good chance of retaking the US Senate and House next year. When a recent CBS-New York Times poll asked people how they would vote in congressional elections, 45 percent said they would pick a Democrat and 38 percent said they would pick a Republican.
This poll spells bad news for the GOP, which is witnessing a reverse of the good fortune it had in 1994.
One advantage Democats have this year is that Gore is more of a known quantity than Bush, given Gore's nearly eight years as a highly-public vice president. If there were anything that could be damaging to Gore, it would have come out by now. Bush, on the other hand, as Texas governor is lesser known. And as he becomes more visible to the electorate, Bush also appears to become more vulnerable.
His failure to know the names of certain heads of state in an unexpected quiz during a recent television interview has not helped him. Although it may not do as much damage as Dan Quayle did to himself when he misspelled ''potato,'' the public is as likely to remember Bush's foreign relations facility as it is Quayle's spelling.
It will take a very strong push by Bradley and McCain to derail Gore and Bush. Congress appears to be shaping up for a Democratic takeover, and no Clinton should ever be counted out of any race, including the one in New York.
Robert A. Jordan is a Globe columnist.
