McCain holding on to thin lead in must-win race

By Ron Fournier Associated Press, 01/28/00

EXETER, N.H. -- Sen. John McCain battled Friday to hold off Gov. George Bush and gain the New Hampshire triumph needed to sustain his underdog presidential campaign as the five-man Republican field headed into a final weekend of campaigning before the nation's first primary.

Bush, in a two-front fight against staunch conservative candidates on one side and the more moderate McCain on the other, believed he was narrowing the gap, aides said. But they also said the Texas governor might run out of time.

"There would have to be a sea change in voter attitudes" for McCain to lose, said Ken Khachigian, one of the Arizona senator's advisers.

Bush, front-runner nationally, said that win or lose in New Hampshire on Tuesday, "I will survive."

The majority of public polls Friday gave McCain the lead, but they also offered Bush reason to hope. Conservative Steve Forbes was running a distant third, still taking aim at Bush.

Four days before the nation's first primary, the GOP campaigns launched their get-out-the-vote drives and made final decisions on weekend TV ads. Unlike past years, when negative ads were part of the closing-weekend dynamic, the top-tier campaigns decided to keep their attack spots off the air unless a rival went first.

Though eleventh-hour attacks could still hit Monday, the reluctance to go negative suggested that McCain, Bush and Forbes were focusing on turning out their supporters rather than trying to peel away their rivals' backers.

"Absent any earth-shattering events this weekend, it's all going to come down to turnout," said Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer.

The Texas governor said he had "a very good chance" of winning Tuesday. But whatever happens, Bush told reporters, "I'm in it for the long pull," with a campaign well organized in primary states beyond New Hampshire.

McCain, however, can't afford to lose here, his aides said. With a fraction of Bush's money and little support from the party establishment, McCain's longshot strategy is to hobble Bush in New Hampshire and ride the momentum into later primary states.

"All I know is it's tight," McCain said, belying the upbeat mood of his senior staff. Both Bush and McCain drew large crowds Friday.

Steve Duprey, New Hampshire's Republican Party chairman, said McCain was the man to beat, but he sensed Bush gaining ground. "The Bush people have to pour it on to catch John," he said.

McCain has been leading in most polls, using his strength among independents, while a couple of polls have shown the race very close. Tracking polls, which are sometimes unreliable, showed Bush gaining ground on McCain after Wednesday's debate by getting increasing support from Republicans.

Bush, meanwhile, was being squeezed from the right and left. While McCain kept him occupied, conservative voters were flirting with Forbes, Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer.

Criticism was served with coffee at a Manchester donut shop Friday, as Bauer attacked Bush's abortion stance.

"I believe Governor Bush is AWOL on this issue," he said. Later, he told employees at an investment firm in Merrimack that others in his party were reluctant to take controversial stands on issues. "I think too many of the people in my party get up in the morning and head for the tall grass," he said.

Speaking to a group of college students, Keyes' eyes welled up with tears when spoke of his religious faith.

And Forbes joined forces with McCain to sue for inclusion on New York primary ballots. Both candidates are accusing Bush of trying to keep them off.

Forbes flew several current and former Texas education officials to Manchester to criticize Bush's record as governor. Bush's rhetoric about his Texas record is "in direct contrast to what has actually happened," the publisher said.

Bush replied as he usually does to Forbes: by recalling his rival's 1996 TV ads that damaged the campaign of eventual nominee Bob Dole.

"The people of New Hampshire are going to reject that kind of campaigning," Bush said.

Turning to McCain, the Texan said President Clinton's State of the Union address showed that the president and McCain "agree on the size of the tax cut."

"It's not significant enough," Bush said of the $350 billion, 10-year tax cut proposed by Clinton. McCain is proposing a $237 billion in tax cuts over five years, half the size of Bush's plan.

Turning the tables, McCain compared Bush to Clinton.

"George Bush's tax plan is exactly the kind of empty promise we've had from President Clinton the last eight years," he said.

Already flush with endorsements, Bush picked up the backing of former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu. Former vice presidential candidate Jack Kemp endorsed Bush a day earlier.

McCain said the back-to-back backings show "real desperation among the establishment."

Behind the scenes, McCain's campaign mailed promotional material to 95,000 Republican women and more than 100,000 independent voters. In addition, 60,000 veterans will be getting letters discussing the former Vietnam POWs "one last mission."

Letters from Bush's mother, former first lady Barbara Bush, were sent by the Texan's campaign to tens of thousands of New Hampshire residents. Each voter identified by the campaign as a Bush backer will get four pieces of mail and four telephone calls urging them to vote Tuesday.

Forbes' mailouts said that Bush couldn't be trusted to cut taxes or government spending.