HARLESTON, S.C. - Senator John McCain, convinced he must win the South Carolina primary to become the Republican presidential nominee, has decided on a high-risk strategy under which he will campaign in this state for nearly 18 straight days after the New Hampshire contest and probably quit if he loses in South Carolina, according to his senior aides.
McCain's strategy in South Carolina, the second state he will actively contest, highlights the bold gamble of the McCain campaign. He is running major organizations in only three states, his home turf of Arizona, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, while national front-runner George W. Bush is running in most states and has raised four times as much money.
And, unlike in New Hampshire, where McCain leads in some polls, Bush is ahead of the Arizona senator in South Carolina by a 62 percent-to-15 percent margin, according to a mid-November poll. As a result, McCain is diverting a huge amount of his resources to South Carolina, making this the only state besides New Hampshire where the senator is running television ads.
''This will be the battle of the century in this primary,'' said state Republican Party chairman Henry McMaster, invoking the sort of hyperbole usually reserved for New Hampshire. Bush, he said, ''has done everything right,'' but McCain's tie to the veteran community is ''huge.'' McCain, who is running as a self-styled maverick who often is at odds with his party, also is hoping to benefit from a state law that allows Democrats, as well as Independents, to participate in the GOP contest.
Several other candidates are having an impact among the state's many religious conservatives, which could further hurt Bush.
For all the talk about Iowa and New Hampshire, both the Bush and McCain campaigns said this is where the Republican nomination may be determined.
McCain is doing little campaigning in Iowa, although he participated in a debate there last night, and he plans to do little or no campaigning for the Feb. 8 Delaware primary, which is the only GOP contest to be held in the 18 days between the Feb. 1 vote in New Hampshire and Feb. 19 contest in South Carolina.
While McCain long has made clear he will campaign hard in South Carolina, the all-or-nothing strategy being pursued is not widely known. The plan assumes that McCain will win New Hampshire and calls on him to spend much more time in South Carolina. Today, for example, McCain is slated to unveil his long-awaited health-care plan in Charleston, perhaps his most visible event in the state so far.
South Carolina ''is the trigger mechanism that catapults this campaign to the nomination,'' said McCain national field director Trey Walker, who, not coincidentally, is the former executive director of the state's Republican Party. Asked whether that means McCain has to win in South Carolina, Walker replied, ''Yes.'' McCain has said, ''We have to win South Carolina.''
Bush's campaign state cochairman, Lieutenant Governor Bob Peeler, puts the stakes equally high. If Bush falters in the first-caucus state of Iowa, if he faces catastrophe in the first primary state of New Hampshire, South Carolina will put the Texas governor on a sure, Southern-oriented path to victory, Peeler said.
''To win the Republican nomination, you need to win South Carolina,'' Peeler said. ''Governor Bush is doing very well, but he doesn't take anything for granted. The race will tighten up.''
The reason for McCain's optimism is that many of the factors that have helped him in New Hampshire are even more in evidence in South Carolina. The state has the nation's highest per-capita number of veterans, a huge plus for McCain, a former Vietnam prisoner of war. Some 450,000 out of 3 million residents are veterans, and it is rare to find a family without ties to the military.
Yesterday, the McCain campaign began airing radio ads that seek both to dramatize his war-hero status and present the senator as a religious man, which is especially important in this state, where the Christian Coalition has been a significant force in the past.
In the ad, McCain's former fellow prisoner Bud Day says: The ''Christmas service of 1971 was centered around Scripture that John had gotten from the first Bible we had been able to get from the Vietnamese, and it was wonderful to have the written word of God. John composed an extremely compelling sermon that night about the importance of Christmas ... I think it was certainly a shot to everyone's morale to hear those Christian words in that very unChristian-like place.''
Moreover, in a quirk that has received little notice, South Carolina allows both Independents and Democrats to vote in the Republican primary. The state's Democratic vote is being held later and is expected to be relatively meaningless, which greatly increases the likelihood that many Democrats will take advantage of the law that allows them to vote Republican.
That scenario could hardly be better for McCain, who tends, in polls, to be viewed positively by many Democrats and Independents. ''It is critical,'' Walker said, referring to South Carolina rules that allow any voter to participate in the GOP primary.
''A win in New Hampshire and a win in South Carolina starts the media and the `snowball' effect,'' Walker said. That is why McCain will spend nearly 18 straight days in South Carolina, although he may make some brief fund-raising excursions out of state during that time.
But if McCain's plan is to succeed, the snowball must be practically unstoppable.
Within days of South Carolina's vote, the Republican contest moves around the country rapidly, to states such as Michigan, New York, and California, where Bush already is organized and McCain is just beginning to establish a presence. As many as 18 contests are expected to be held in the 17 days after South Carolina's vote.
Karl Rove, Bush's chief strategist, said that even if McCain does win in New Hampshire and South Carolina, he does not think the senator would have enough time to catch up in other states.
''The idea that you can rely upon momentum to shift public opinion rapidly just is not borne out,'' Rove told reporters at a Washington breakfast last week. ''We have built a campaign that is able to endure and win and compete everywhere.''
The other four candidates in the GOP race also are paying attention to South Carolina, but not with nearly as much effort as Bush and McCain. Forbes, who got 13 percent of the vote in this state in 1996, plans to campaign in South Carolina, but is focusing more heavily on the Feb. 22 contest in Michigan. Former Reagan aide Gary Bauer and talk show host Alan Keyes are hoping to tap into the South Carolina's religious conservative vote, while Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah is relatively unknown in this state.
