McCain surpassed Bush in all but a few N.H. towns

By Jill Zuckman, Globe Staff, 2/3/2000

ANCHESTER, N.H. - He never saw it coming.

When Mike Dennehy got the phone call Tuesday telling him that John McCain was leading George W. Bush by 19 points in the exit polls, he didn't believe it. ''What?'' said Dennehy, McCain's New England director. ''That can't be right.''

It was.

Ultimately, McCain beat Bush in all but a handful of New Hampshire towns. There was hardly any area of the state where Bush managed to prevail against a tidal wave of independent and Republican support for the Arizona senator.

In Randolph, Bush beat McCain by one vote, 42 to 41. He did it again in Waterville Valley, besting McCain 27 to 26. The Texas governor also took Rumney by 10, winning the town 127 to 117.

But in every major population center, from Derry to Salem and from Manchester to Nashua, McCain swept the votes his way.

On the Democratic side, Al Gore managed to hang on despite the immense turnout of independent voters and people who registered to vote for the first time. Those voters were more likely to vote for Bill Bradley, the former New Jersey senator.

With the solid support of registered Democrats, Gore avoided Bush's humiliation on the Republican side. The large population centers of Manchester, Nashua, Salem, and Derry went to Gore. So did most of the liberal seacoast towns. The vice president even prevailed in Concord, 3,203 to 2,785, despite expecting to lose the state capital.

Bradley had always appealed to voters with high incomes and postgraduate degrees. He excelled among voters in the college towns surrounding Dartmouth and the University of New Hampshire. In Hanover, Bradley won, 1,380 to 667; and in Durham, he won again, 1,333 to 802.

Altogether, McCain received 115,545 votes or 49 percent; Bush had 71,121 votes or 30 percent; Steve Forbes, 29,615 votes or 13 percent; Alan Keyes, 15,170 votes or 6 percent; and Gary Bauer, 1,671 votes or 1 percent.

On the Democratic side, Gore received 76,527 votes or 50 percent, and Bradley had 70,295 votes or 46 percent.

Secretary of State William Gardner said he expected that a record number of votes were cast in the 2000 primary, compared to 348,000 in 1992. The 1996 primary drew 303,000 voters to the polls. The final turnout numbers will not be completely compiled for another day or two.

The high turnout was unusual for good economic times, as was the large number of independent voters and people who registered to vote on the day of the election. Historically, independent voters are less likely to vote than registered Democrats or Republicans.

''The concentration in the media about what is going on with independents and how important they will be probably drove up interest among independents,'' said Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire survey center.

Of those who voted in the Republican primary, 32 percent were undeclared or independent voters. Another 5 percent registered at the polls to vote in the GOP primary. That means 37 percent of all people who voted in the Republican primary were not registered Republicans, according to exit polls by the Voter News Service.

On the Democratic side, 30 percent of the people who voted were independent voters. Another 5 percent registered to vote at the polls to cast ballots in the Democratic primary. Bradley beat Gore among both those groups, according to the exit polls.

McCain's convincing win may have stemmed, in part, from his early strategy of targeting small towns where it was easier to attract people to hear him speak than it was in the larger cities.

''We were polling so low when we started, there were no strong areas,'' said Peter Spaulding, state chairman of McCain's campaign and a New Hampshire executive councilor.

Yvonne Abraham of the Globe Staff contributed to this report.